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2020 Anagrammed NFL Draft
In peak offseason form, I decided to anagram all the draft picks. I did have two rules, I could not use the original player's name (Example: Brian Burns, could not be Brain Burns), and I couldn't add a suffix to the name. There could definitely be better ones, I used this website. I also, did this last year!
GODDAMIT. BEEN SITTING ON THIS FOR A MONTH, AND NOW IT'S ALL BEEN BLOWN TO SHIT.
Maybe it stays the same since Morey was likely 'inspired' to step down so that Tilman could get the China money back and will continue assisting the new regime from the shadows, but as I have no clue at all what the future is going to bring and don't want to re-write this piece for the planned 'GM write-up' series that was supposed to be starting after the Finals, I'm just gonna drop it here and let anyone else who wants to take over do it. FUCK TILMAN FERTITTA. I'm out.
State of the team
After a disappointing bubble performance that did not end in a Championship, many people are questioning if the Rockets window has officially closed. In all likelihood, it has; but it is not yet locked, so with the right moves it can be opened enough to squeeze out another deep run or two that can finally break through if the team finds a brick of luck for once. What those right moves are and how to accomplish them are the challenge posed to Daryl Morey and his crew. There are a number of constraints that will make this difficult, including a lack of draft assets and moveable contracts that are not integral to the team's success, but the most challenging proposition will again be owner Tilman Fertitta's finances. While some critics may believe that the Rockets small ball experiment was a failure, management will likely point to the fact that 'defense' was not nearly as much of a problem in the playoffs as 'offense' and that Russell Westbrook's obvious impairment from a quad injury was the primary factor in underachieving desired expectations. The general belief in the front office is that the formula is not broken so much as unlucky. Another couple of chances will hopefully bring the health necessary for a breakthrough. Daryl Morey's top-stated priority entering the off-season was re-signing coach Mike D'Antoni. Well, D'Antoni ended any talk of that by opting to take his services elsewhere before the team plane had even departed Orlando. This leaves the team in search of a new head coach before any other moves can really be considered, since whoever gets the position will likely hope to have a bit of say in any of the roster decisions that need to be made. The team is casting a wide net in their search having interviewed candidates like frontrunners Tyronn Lue and Jeff Van Gundy, as well as Kenny Atkinson, Wes Unseld Jr., and Stephen Silas. The new coach will need to garner the instant respect of a veteran-laden team (possibly possessing enough cachet to actually inspire a different style of play?), and may need to fulfill Fertitta's desire to make headlines, favoring a big-name hire. It must be included that there is even a slim chance that D'Antoni returns to the role now that Doc Rivers has swooped his pre-supposed landing spot in Philly, but I expect the final candidates may come from the following list of assistant coaches and thus (completely coincidentally) cheaper names in case a need arises to go in another direction: Sam Cassell - The former Rockets legend is currently serving as an assistant coach for Doc Rivers. Frequently cited as one of the top assistants ready to take the next step. As a former All-Star point guard, he may be able to command the respect of Westbrook and Harden enough to offset his lack of head coaching experience. His big balls could "Make Houston Clutch Again". John Lucas - The Rockets Assistant Coach is very familiar with the system and the current players. He provides continuity and a cheap, short-term contract that would allow for an easy 'out' if things do not work in the next year or two (which is the optimistic extent of the title hopes for this current iteration of the Rockets) Chris Finch - An ex-RGV Vipers Head Coach now working as an assistant in New Orleans. He is a savant on offense, on very good terms with Morey and his philosophy, and due for his 'chance' in the bigs. Given the success of Nick Nurse, another coach who won a G-League Championship for the RGV Vipers, I feel as if Chris Finch should end up getting the call (although he appears to have dropped off the radar). The new head coach will have a challenging job of needing to instantly compete with a roster of vets who are notorious for not being as flexible in their approach to the game as might be desired. This team is not only 'set' in its ways mentally to the point where an attempt to change the team philosophy could easily backfire and result in another lost season, it is also relatively 'set' in its ability to make personnel changes. So expect the new coach to provide more of an 'extension' of the current Moreyball philosophy than a completely different style.
2021 Houston Rockets Roster and Salary
PLAYER NAME
SALARY CAP HIT
DETAILS (contract values rise)
Russell Westbrook
41,358,814
2 more yrs + player option
James Harden
41,254,920
2 more years + player option
Eric Gordon
16,869,276
4 more years
Robert Covington
12,138,345
2 more years
PJ Tucker
7,969,537
expiring
Danuel House
3,717,000
2 more years
Ben McLemore
2,283,034
expiring
Chris Clemons
1,517,981
2 more years of team options
David Nwaba
1,862,250
team option
TOTAL
128,971,157
Things look relatively straight-forward for the Rockets. All of their main rotation guys are already signed and set to return with the exception of Jeff Green and Austin Rivers. The Rockets are prime candidates to start the season off by basically "running it back". Considering Green has enjoyed great success in Houston's system and seems to have established good chemistry within his role in the system, he will absolutely be considered an important piece to re-sign. He has played on minimum-level contracts for the past few years, so unless another contender surprisingly decides to use part of their MLE on him, he should be able to return on a 1+1 veteran minimum contract. Austin Rivers has a player option for $2,369,663. It is considered highly unlikely that he will opt-in to this (although he will be welcomed back with open arms if he does). If he leaves, the team will likely look to find a replacement ball-handleperimeter defender. The hopeful addition of Jeff Green to the list of signed players takes the team to a total of 10 contracts, meaning Morey will look to add 5 more players into the fold. Positional needs: The Rockets took one big step closer to the idea of 'position-less' basketball by banishing their traditional centers last season. The big question is, will they continue this philosophy into 2021? The answer to this may partially depend upon who the next coach is. As previously stated, the advanced age of this particular roster resulting in an extremely small window for success, combined with the players' familiarity with the current roles and system and the reduced off-season leads me to believe that the small ball experiment will continue into the 2021 season. Not only was it proven effective offensively at unlocking the best version of Russell Westbrook since his 2017 MVP campaign, the hybrid switching system the team utilized in the first half of the season to account for Clint Capela's reduced ability to guard perimeter players was not as successful as the switch-everything system the team implemented in the playoffs; so unless the team can get a larger center who can effectively switch 1-5, it is unlikely that 'Center' is going to be seen as a top priority. Look for the team to try to focus their search on finding long, stretchy, big forwards, as they did with the late-season signings of Jeff Green, DeMarre Carroll, and David Nwaba. They will also try to fill the position of 'tertiary ball handler' should Rivers choose to go elsewhere. Although Austin may sign another 1+1 minimum deal with the team, it is more likely that he will look for a bigger role (and payday) on another team. There is a small chance he could be used in a sign and trade (Houston has his Early Bird Rights allowing him to sign a contract up to around $8M), so he may serve as salary filler in building a larger sign & trade, but note that such a move will surely push Houston well into the luxury tax, bringing us to... Luxury Tax Issues: The expected threshold will probably fall around $132-133M. Houston is brushing up against that with only 9 players under contract currently. Bear in mind that ownership has suffered catastrophic economic distress this year due to Fertitta's business interests in casinos and restaurants (not to mention that he was never interested in paying tax even in better times with a stronger team). Unlike this season, next year should see a large cash pay-out to non-tax teams as many contenders who were below the tax last year due to their participation in Free Agency will be utilizing exceptions that push them into the luxury tax (Golden State in particular has been making overtures at filling its TPE, which would result in one of the largest tax bills on record). Despite his questionable claims that he is financially solvent and ready to pay tax to field a contender, Tilman Fertitta will be happy to be an owner that avoids paying tax again and instead receives a check from the league. Daryl Morey will have his work cut out for him to achieve that, but after accomplishing it in 2019 and 2020 with masterful tax-reducing moves at the trade deadline, there is little doubt he can (and likely will) do it again in 2021. 2 years ago, he reduced Ryan Anderson's $20M contract through a series of moves to Iman Shumpert's $12M and last year he reduced Capela's $17M hit to Covington's $11M bill. Eric Gordon's $17M is the obvious candidate for reduction this year, and there are a variety of ways in which it could be done.
Potential roster moves
Draft Per usual, Houston does not have any draft picks. They do have almost $5M in cash remaining with which they could purchase a draft pick (potentially even 2 late ones); but most likely Morey will work the pool of undrafted talent to try to find a couple new 2-way contract candidates. Free Agency: There are unlikely to be any major moves in the off-season aside from signing 6 players to veteran minimum contracts. Jeff Green and Gerald Green are likely signings. Michael Frazier may have earned a promotion to the main squad, but will more likely continue to stay in the G-League on a 2-way contract. Tyson Chandler and Austin Rivers are candidates who are less likely to be re-signed, but may end up filling the same roles they did this year. Otherwise, expect Morey to take fliers on guys who have high upside in the system that are cut by other teams or don't get the larger contracts they are hoping to find and willing to take short term deals in Houston in an effort to rebuild their value. Although technically below the tax, using the Full MLE would hard-cap the Rockets at a level providing almost no flexibility for in-season maneuvers, something Morey despises, so the taxpayer mini-MLE is the only practical option available this off-season. However, if avoiding the luxury tax is a priority (Narrator: "It is."), then using the MLE at all is not going to be feasible. Houston has avoided using the MLE for the past 2 seasons (with the exception of utilizing small portions of it to lock up undrafted players on cheap 3-year deals), and is likely to follow in that path this year. Morey traditionally does his best work at the trade deadline, and will likely look to that time frame again in the 2021 season. There is one (unlikely) way that the Rockets could utilize their full MLE - by sending a current player to another team for less salary in return, leading us to... Trades: The Rockets do not have a lot of positive-value contracts they can part with that are not a critical part of their core. Danuel House is on a good contract, and the team may be looking to move him if they believe his bubble antics were problematic for future chemistry. He could likely be moved with no problem. This would also be an easy way to cut a couple million dollars in salary, if necessary. PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are also on good deals, but are crucial to the Rockets scheme. It is extremely unlikely they will be dealt. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are also unlikely to go anywhere in the off-season. If disaster strikes or a deal that can't be refused arises, then there is a small chance one or more of these 4 could be moved at the deadline. As stated before, Eric Gordon is the most likely candidate to be traded. While his improved bubble play may have gotten his contract closer to 'neutral' value, it is likely that a pick would need to be attached to it in order to bring back a player of value, particularly from a rebuilding team, which is also the traditional place where he could be sent into cap space to avoid bringing back 80% in matching salary. However due to his age and injury history, he is probably only of interest to a team that fancies itself as 'contending' for something. There is a small chance that he could be sent to Golden State, as his contract fits within their Traded Player Exception and he fills a position of need, but it is unlikely that Houston is anxious to improve a conference rival (however, the idea that he could possibly bring back draft capital and increase the size of the league's payout check to non-taxpaying teams make this a scenario that can not be discarded outright). Sending Gordon into space is the best way for Houston to access its full MLE (as well as creating a hefty TPE of their own). However, it would likely have to happen in the window after the draft and before free agency shakes out in order to be an option. And it would likely entail losing Houston's only first round pick that is available for trade, making later moves more difficult (so I don't expect this to happen). Available Picks that can be traded:
YEAR
ROUND
DETAILS/NOTES
2021
1
worst of HOU, OKC, MIA
2022
1
cannot be used this year in conjunction with the 2021 pick
2021
2
swap rights with Philadelphia
2024
2
from GS
*All of the team's own second round picks from 2024 and beyond Houston does not have a lot of draft capital. Morey will surely look to use the 2021 first at the trade deadline to move a contract, allowing him to keep the 2022 first (Houston's last tradeable first round pick thanks to the Stepien Rule) for use next year if necessary. Possible scenarios: Which contract(s) and for what type of deal are the only questions, and only time will tell what those needs are (best player available/positional need/salary cap savings) and how to best fulfill them. There are a ton of options and no one can tell what sort of needs or opportunities will arise by mid-way through next season. But by waiting to strike until that point, Morey maximizes his potential to do the best thing for the team going forward, whether it is a small move for tax savings, a big splash for a disgruntled superstar, or even the beginning of a total rebuild. Waiting until the deadline also gives guys like Gordon and Westbrook a chance to overcome the injuries that plagued them in 2020 and raise their trade value. Trading either one of these contracts for multiple smaller contracts (at 80% value) is the fastest and easiest way to get to within striking distance of avoiding the tax again this year, and allowing Morey to 3-peat in cap wizardry. I suppose I'll predict that 1) Gordon and a pick will be headed someplace like Philadelphia, who could use his shooting (maybe for Josh Richardson and Zaire Smith?) or perhaps, 2) Morey will work with Monte McNair in Sacramento to do a deal for someone (maybe Nemanja Bjelica and Jabari Parker?), much like he did with his other recent protégé-turned-GM, Gersson Rosas, at the 2020 deadline. Of course, there is always the chance that Fertitta will find some money in his couch cushions, or have a come-to-Jesus moment that inspires him to pay the tax, which would open up the possibility of trading for a player who makes equal or more money or potentially even using the MLE this year. In the extremely off-chance that that happens, a perfect candidate would be Myles Turner in Indiana, who would provide the stretch-big rim protector that would fit so well in Houston's system. Aaron Gordon would also fit really well into Houston's system as long as he can hit a corner 3. Doing either of these trades and avoiding the tax is within the realm of feasibility if another contract (e.g. House or Tucker's) is included with Gordon's. And to wrap this up, a few potential FA targets to use the MLE (or a potential S&T) on if it somehow becomes possible: Serge Ibaka, Jerami Grant, Aaron Baynes, Davis Bertans, Bogdan Bogdanovich, a Morris twin, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Davis.
My boyfriend got custody of me as a teen and abused me for years.
Hi! First time poster but I want to tell my story to get it off my chest. I feel like I need to tell my story in its entirety to give it justice. This post is probably going to be long, so I'm sorry in advance. If it's any consolation it does have a happy ending that I hope inspires anyone who's found themselves feeling trapped with their abusers. *** This story involves suicide, sexual assault, substance abuse, physical, and psychological abuse*** I met my husband when I was 17 in my junior year of high school. My mom had left her husband, moved away, and left me in a small town with no family. I didn't even know where my dad lived. I couch surfed for some time while trying to get through high school. I found him on this app called Meetme. We talked for a while and went on our first date. He was 19, worked at Hot Topic, and came from a pretty well off family. He eventually found out about my living situation and I guess his hero complex kicked in and he begged his parents to let me live with him until he could get his own place. His parents were nervous housing a "runaway delinquent" but caved. We got our first place within walking distance of my school. We payed rent and lived comfortably on our part time jobs. The honeymoon phase ended fast. He didn't like any of my friends (especially the one that asked me to his prom because he didn't have a date). He started treating me differently when he found out how many partners I've had before him. At one point he told his sister he felt like I was someones used plaything. I'm not proud of admitting it, but I wound up looking through his phone. He liked some really vile porn. He also complained to one of his female friends that I didn't put out the first date and tried to hook up with her. I was 17 and at that point he was all I had. I couldn't get medical attention unless he was there because my mom signed it over to him. If I got in trouble at school, he was the one they were calling. My 19 year old boyfriend was more or less my guardian. By the time I turned 18 things got worse. He started wearing my clothes and flirting with one of his male friends. I even noticed some of my birth control pills were missing. He would come back home really late, and would take hours to pick me up from work. When I found out about the cheating I packed up my things and searched desperately for one of my family members to come get me. No one could help me. The sight of my packed bags scared him and he said he would be better. Turns out he just got better at hiding it. When we got into arguments he would raise his fist and stop a couple of inches from my face. This was also around the time I stopped my birth control and went back to condoms. I found our condoms had holes poked into them. When I turned 19 I dropped out. I couldn't count on him or anyone to support me while I tried to finish High School. I got a full time job at some factory. He turned 21 and became an alcoholic. I had suffered a really bad injury at work and didn't have a license. He would drop me off at the doctors then go to the casino and get too drunk to pick me up. This was before Ubers were in our small town. I was prescribed three very strong pain killers for my injury. At one point the pain, abuse, and gaslightingI was going through was so bad I took all of them with some alcohol, and nearly died on my friends couch. She told me she had to drag me to her bathroom and make me throw up. In the end I am forever thankful she was there to stop me from my irreversible decision. Fast forward a few months and his parents moved to Houston. We went to visit them for a vacation. We had a disagreement and when night came around I wasn't interested in sex he let it go. For a few hours. I woke up to him forcing himself into me. He hurt my legs, he clamped his hand on my mouth. The thing that disturbed me the most was the whole time he was whispering in my ear "I'm sorry" over and over again. I didn't even leave then. I was in too deep. Fast forward a few months. I was 20, almost 21, walking down the isle to marry the man that took my last few years of adolescence. The relationship never got better. He flip flopped between wanting to be a man, an woman. He got expensive lazer hair removal surgery, bought makeup, sent nudes to his coworkers, the guy friend he cheated on me with previously, and strangers he would flirt with on the internet. He eventually lost his job and we lost our apartment in Houston. My saving grace was reconnecting with the father I hadn't seen for 18 years. He got more hostile with me once my dad was back in the future. He whined that I didn't need him anymore. He let us both move in to his home in Dallas. I eventually got sick of his cheating and abuse, so when he went to visit his parents in Houston, I told him not to come back. During the divorce proceedings I turned to alcohol and drugs to cope. Lets move forward to present day. I'm 25, halfway to 26. I got the help I needed to stay sober. I got my GED, got a license, and have a car. We've been divorced since 2017. He got remarried a few months after it was finalized. He decided he didn't want to be a girl, and converted to islam for his wife. He divorced her over a year ago. That friend that asked me to his prom back in high school? We've been together since 2017, recently celebrated our three year anniversary, are engaged, and moving to Washington state at the end of september. I love him so much, and he loves me. I like to laugh at the fact that my current relationship lasted longer than his 2nd marriage. Thanks for reading my story. If I can drag myself out of the worst period of my life and become a happy, functioning adult, I think anyone can too.
Although most likely GTA Online’s upcoming winter update will most likely either be a new interior in Los Santos like the mall or a small island you might not even be able to access in free roam, it definitely does seem like Rockstar is interested in eventually doing a map expansion, although currently Rockstar has been adding new interiors rather than actually expanding the map. I think that the casino interior on Online was Rockstar experimenting with enhancing Los Santos with new interiors as current gen limitations prevent map expansions. But with a standalone version of Online coming in 2021 on next gen consoles I think eventually Online could get a map expansion. What does this have to do with GTA 6? Well, as GTA 6 will almost certainly be for next-gen consoles from the start it is likely to eventually receive a map expansion. We have no idea where it’ll take place but what would you most want as a new map? The game will definitely not take place in Los Santos as we’ve been stuck with it for years but I think that several years after 6’s release they add Los Santos as a map expansion both because it would be easier than an entirely new city and people would become nostalgic for it. Let’s assume GTA 6 takes place in Vice City and lasts for a decade before GTA 7. The game receives two map expansions over the course of its lifetime. If there could be any two locations that Rockstar could add for the next-gen GTA 6, what would you like? They can be either cities that have been done or entirely new cities. Here are my ideas -Liberty City (updated with new graphics, maybe a countryside) -Las Venturas (great atmosphere plus a lot of money potential for Take Two with gambling) -Detroit (GTA 3’s Liberty City’s hellhole atmosphere on steroids, dangerous gang wars, abandoned neighborhoods giving an incredible dark atmosphere) -Los Santos (I think updating the graphics of Los Santos from PS3 to PS5 would make it seem like an entirely new city, plus the large countryside could look absolutely gorgeous, just look at Red Dead Redemption 2, that’s a current-gen game and it’s wilderness areas are incredible. -Houston (a big city with industrial areas literally right next to residential areas) -Somewhere In Mexico or South America (drug trafficking and the potential for exploring a different country in GTA) -North Yankton (snowy small town atmosphere) -Anaheim (Disneyland, which offers a ton of satire potential) -A random small town (easier to make but has a great atmosphere that’s a break from the big city) -Washington DC (government satire) -The Grand Canyon (excellent countryside area) -Hawaii or a tourist island(s) (awesome islands and jungle to explore) -Private islands (billionaire mansion heists) -Somewhere In Canada (Canadian satire) -Boston (American origins satire) -London (a city that’s traversed much differently than an American city, plus British satire) -A city that’s based off nothing in particular (allows a lot of creativity in it’s design, plus easier than replicating an actual area)
COPY PASTA from my post at AirForce! A Thorough Review of Robins AFB Hello Everyone, This is my review of Robins AFB after living here for the past 5 years. Hope you find this helpful!
Background of Robins: Robins AFB was created in the 1940s, it was named after Brig Gen Augustine Warner Robins. It is centrally located in Middle Georgia and is about 100 miles south of Atlanta. The mission and main reason why the base still exists today is because of the JSTARS radarecon aircraft. Plus, the base provides jobs to over 18K civilians and the city of Warner Robins would not exist if the base closed.
Getting to Base:
If you’re familiar with using Google Map/GPS to help you get to a military base, it can be difficult to find an open gate without your GPS telling you to turn/U-Turn into a closed gate! Put in your GPS, “Martin’s BBQ, 102 S Armed Forces Blvd, Warner Robins, GA 31088.” It will take you to Watson Blvd and to the only 24hr gate; Watson Gate. This is also the gate to get visitor passes for your friends/family. The other gate you’ll be using a lot is Russell gate which is connected to Russell Pkwy. I’ll be assuming you’re driving from the Atlanta airport, so south of Highway 247. GPS the “Museum of Aviation” and about 100 yards before you arrive at the MoA, exit right to Russell Gate. Note, Russell Gate closes at 2400 (0100 on Fri and Sat only) and opens up at 0430 on weekdays and 0500 on the weekends. Hours subject to change, check online for more specific hours! Green Gate and MLK Gate are two other notable gates mainly for inbound and outbound traffic in the morning rush/afternoon rush.
Notable Places on Base:
Bowling Alley: 908 Ninth Street (478-926-2112) Fitness CenteBase Gym: 826 Eighth Street (478-926-9128) Fitness Annex/24 Hour Gym: Bldg 301 (478-926-2840) Finance: 236 Milledgeville Street Suite 526 (478-926-4022) Heritage Club/Restaurant: 956 Ninth St (Various Numbers) ITT/Outdoor Recreation: Bldg 984 (Located next to the Main BX) (478-926-4001) Medical Clinic: 655 Seventh St (478-327-7850 Appointment Line) MPF/MPS: 660 Macon St (478-327-5666)
Notable Cities:
Warner Robins - The main city outside of Robins AFB is Warner Robins. WR will be referenced a lot while you are here at Robins. WR can be summed up in a few words as a small-sized southern city with churches and chain restaurants. The city consists of two main counties; Houston (pronounced “House Ton” and not “Hugh’s Town.” People will correct you on this!) and Peach County. Macon - Located about 15 miles north of Robins AFB/Warner Robins. Macon has a lot of history and is nicknamed the “Heart of Georgia” because it is in the center of GA. Honestly IMO, Macon is pretty ghetto… What happened to Macon is similar to Detroit.. Both places were once thriving industrial cities until their main asset collapsed. You’ll see a lot of abandoned buildings when you drive to downtown Macon. It is pretty sad. There are some nice areas in Macon to visit though, like around Zebulon Road. I’d still recommend going downtown to eat at some nice mom and pop stores. Make sure to never go alone, however. Savannah - Located about 2 ½ hours to 3 hours South-East/East of Robins. It is the #1 “Most Haunted” city in the United States apparently. It is really fun to visit. Eat seafood and go on some ghost tours while you’re there. The #3 Ice Cream Shop in the U.S. is in Savannah, Leopolds, if you love ice cream. The vibe can be described as a cross between Florida and South Carolina and “hipster-ish” thanks to SCAD there. Be prepared to walk a lot. Free parking on the weekends! Almost every store gives military discounts since there is an Army Base nearby. Give yourself 3 days and 2 nights to really have a grasp and enjoy Savannah. Atlanta - The capital of GA and the place to be! It is located about 100 miles north of Robins which takes about 2 ½ hours to drive, thanks to the good ol’ Atlanta traffic! There is an abundant amount of things to do and sightsee that I will talk about later in this post.
Food: For fellow Airmen who’ve been stationed here before, you can probably side with my next statement… And that is the food in WR.... can be described as average southern food with average hospitality across the board. There are some hidden/great gems in WMacon, however…
Owen’s Boarding House is one of my favorite mom and pop stores in WR and it's really close to the base for a quick lunch! Owen’s is an all-you-can-eat lunch-only southern restaurant, dig in those chicken wings! It’s about $10.50, cash only. The Rookery, in downtown Macon, is one you’ll hear a lot of. It is an old southern/burger joint. The store has a fancy dining upstairs; The Dovetail, if you’re into that. Martin's BBQ, I referenced it earlier as a good point to locate Robins AFB but it is also a popular BBQ! WR really loves Mexican food, and so do I! Taco Shed is next to the Museum of Aviation, it is American Mexican food. Salsa’s which is a dining American Mexican restaurant. My Grandma’s Empanadas and Luis for more authentic Mexican food. Cuban Cafe sells pretty good Cuban food. Tacos and More, I wasn't a huge fan of it but one of the comments mentioned it and it does sell $1 tacos, try it out! Wasn't a fan of Saigon Noodle in WR, its close to base, which is why I believe their portions are small for a Vietnamese place. Plus, the Pho soup has MSG! Pho Saigon in Macon is great, however. Good portions, and no MSG in their soups! Stir King is a nice American Chinese place which gives good portions. I am not a fan of the “Japanese” food in WR, better go to Atlanta for real sushi and ramen. Also… screw all of WR’s Hibachi restaurants. I did not mention any corporate/franchise restaurants since you may already be familiar with them and only want to mention the mom n pop stores.
Dorm Life: You will be assigned a dorm room with a suite-mate and will have to share a bathroom and kitchen. (Note, not all dorms have a kitchen.) You have to stay in the dorms for at least 3 years TIS and not TOS, which is good.
They’re also “Senior Airmen” dorms for Airmen who’ve stayed longer in the dorms. Essentially, a SrA dorm is a larger dorm with no suite-mate and no kitchen. If the dorms have no availability, Airmen with the longest TOS (Time-on-Station) will be allowed to leave early. You can ask regularly if the dorms are full and maybe you can leave ahead of others. Certain circumstances can allow you to leave the dorms early such as being a mature age (like over the age of 30) or being married but your spouse is currently living elsewhere due to service, school, etc. My personal experience: I lived in the dorms and I would describe the overall experience as “okay.” It can be hit or miss with a good suite-mate and your dorm might have mold in them... I didn’t though. Typically activities of dorm airmen include going clubbing, the gym, and/or playing video games. Overall, I enjoyed living in the dorms because of the access to network with other Airmen, not cooking my own food, because of the DEFAC, and friends were just close by.
Housing: If you’re looking to buy/rent a house, make sure to DYOR and see it’s what you like. The BAH rate for the local area is... fair. If you choose to live by yourself you can make $100-200 extra a month based on where you choose to stay. Very common to find a roommate so you can start pocketing anywhere from $300 to $400.
I lived in Warner Robins after I moved off base from the dorms, and the area was okay. Generally speaking, the further you live off base, (and this goes for all military bases) the safer the environment becomes. If you’re wanting to live in a nicer area and/or have kids. Look into living in cities Kathleen and/or Bonaire. The area and school system (like Houston County High School) is much nicer than the rest of the public school system. Cities like Perry and Bryon have far commutes of at least 20 minutes but can be described as “rural” if like not knowing your neighbors. IMO, please do yourself a favor and do not live off or near Green St. (Hint. It’s right off Green St Gate!) I would also not recommend living in Macon. Imma be real and say Macon is pretty ghetto in most parts of the city (unless you live off Zebulon Rd) and the commute to work is going to be at least 20 mins to work. Edit: Forgot to mention Riverside in Macon. It is still relatively new and the area is nice and so are the neighborhoods. The Riverside Mall is an outdoor mall, very safe and clean. Don't go to the Macon Mall, however. Essentially, South-West of Warner Robins is the best place to live. Where Feagin Mill Rd and Highway 96 is.
Base Housing: Base Housing has really tanked in the last few years, and I mean... the ABW Wing Commander, Command Chief, and multiple First Shirts were involved recently with Base Housing because living conditions have been subpar. Mold has been breaking out in some houses and maintenance work orders take weeks to a few months to resolve. Of course, this is only happening for the Turner Park residency (cough where the Enlisted stay cough) The Officers housing is very nice, however. Now, with that being said, it’s still a 3-month wait to get base housing because of the simplicity and not having to worry about finding a house, short commute to work, safety, etc.
Off Base Housing community is called Huntington Chase, it’s ghetto from what my co-workers have told me as they’ve gunshots go off frequently and cars are breaking into. Off-Base housing is open to civilians and not just military.
Things To Do:
Coca Cola Factory - Entry is free for military (does not include dependents) and it is a nice place to go on a date. Try flavors of coke from around the world! Aquarium - IMO, the experience felt it was geared towards children, I would only pay during special military days because $33 is not worth the visit! Atlanta Zoo - Never been but it is another sight seeing opportunity. Dragon Con - A.K.A. “Comic Con of the East.” Where 80k of your “best friends” come meet in a 4-day comic/pop culture/movie/ convention which spans across 5 hotels! Most people get turned off when they hear “comic” as they associate this con with sweaty nerds… Well, they aren’t wrong! But I can guarantee you’ll be missing out if you did not attend this con at least once while you’re at Robins. Even if you don’t love comics, movies, anime, or pop culture (who doesn’t like at least one of the 4?) you can open drink in public for the duration of the con! It is always during Labor Day weekend every year. And if you don’t mind paying for the price of a host hotel, they’re worth it. Good luck because they get booked fast! Anime Weekend Atlanta - An Anime Con that specializes on having Japanese pop/rock stars to play in the con! MomoCon - An Anime Con that specializes in 24hour gaming/arcade gaming for the entire weekend! Ponce City Market - A hipster food and shopping market that used an abandoned factory as their shopping district. Please do yourself a favor and park in Ponce City Market’s parking and not try to get “free” parking from the plaza across the street. You’ll get a “boot” on your car when you come back and have to pay a fine… Ask me how I figured that out... Caffeine and Octane - A huge car meet in Atlanta that meets regularly. Mardi Gras: The drive to Louisiana is about 6 hours but I know some Airmen who made the trip to be there for Mardi Gras. Florida: The drive will take at least 3 hours to cross the Florida border. Florida is fun, do I need to say more? Professional Sports: Altanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons! Look for special discounts near Veterans days like Hoops for Troops. The Falco Don’t forget to check the ITT office for free or reduce price activities for “single Airmen!” Seriously, I’ve gone skydiving, deep sea fishing, paintballing, etc for free or reduced prices! 50% of Disney Park passes! Obviously, there are more things to do than the list I provided, DYOR and maybe you’ll find a place and/or hidden gem you’ll love!
Nightlife: Go to Downtown Macon for entry level clubs like the Crazy Bull. It’s free for the military to get in. They are always new clubs opening and small clubs closing. Try them all! First Fridays of the month are pretty lit. For the rest of the month, the clubs are kinda empty unless it's a special day like Halloween or St Patricks. Again, don’t go by yourself when you go to downtown Macon. If you and a couple of friends want a better club experience, carpool to Atlanta and go clubbing there. Other than that, there isn’t a strong club scene while being in Middle GA.
Closing Thoughts:
A lot of your co-workers will most likely talk crap about Robins. Well, they’re probably the same salty Airmen who put Robins AFB, 9th, on their dream sheet and how trying to figure out how Eglin or Macdill wasn’t chosen even though it was #1 and #3 on their dream sheet. But even if they aren’t those types of Airmen.... Robins is one of those “what you make of it bases.” You. Yes you, Airman, have to create your own experiences and be willing to leave your dorm and not be a dorm rat to make memories at Robins. This base isn’t centrally located to anything known for “fun” like all the bases in San Antonio, all Florida bases, Travis, Keesler and the casinos, etc. Even that hot A1C still has to make an effort to venture out and explore new roads and can’t rely on other people to do it for them. “Robins-ism.” For whatever reason, “Robin-ism” is basically AFIs and the proper order of how to do things in the Air Force... does not apply the same for Robins. You’ll hear a lot of “that’s not how we did that at my last base.” People say it's because the amount of civilians outnumbers the military 3:1. And with that, if the civilians don’t like the AFI/protocol, it will slowly but surely die out and a “Robin-ism” method of how to do things soon takes over. I am not blaming the large civilian population, it is just what Airmen accept is the reason why some people on this base can be lazy at times. Allergies. If you never experienced allergies or have in the past. Well, Warner Robins has a surprise for you... Seriously, you could potentially suffer from bad allergies. I hope you found this review helpful if you're incoming to Robins whether it'd be a PCS or TDY, or if you just wanted to read my review. Edit: Added more info. Edit 2: I have since PCSed from Robins in 2020.
Hello Everyone, This is my review of Robins AFB after living here for the past 5 years. Hope you find this helpful!
Background of Robins: Robins AFB was created in the 1940s, it was named after Brig Gen Augustine Warner Robins. It is centrally located in Middle Georgia and is about 100 miles south of Atlanta. The mission and main reason why the base still exists today is because of the JSTARS radarecon aircraft. Plus, the base provides jobs to over 18K civilians and the city of Warner Robins would not exist if the base closed.
Getting to Base:
If you’re familiar with using Google Map/GPS to help you get to a military base, it can be difficult to find an open gate without your GPS telling you to turn/U-Turn into a closed gate! Put in your GPS, “Martin’s BBQ, 102 S Armed Forces Blvd, Warner Robins, GA 31088.” It will take you to Watson Blvd and to the only 24hr gate; Watson Gate. This is also the gate to get visitor passes for your friends/family. The other gate you’ll be using a lot is Russell gate which is connected to Russell Pkwy. I’ll be assuming you’re driving from the Atlanta airport, so south of Highway 247. GPS the “Museum of Aviation” and about 100 yards before you arrive at the MoA, exit right to Russell Gate. Note, Russell Gate closes at 2400 (0100 on Fri and Sat only) and opens up at 0430 on weekdays and 0500 on the weekends. Hours subject to change, check online for more specific hours! Green Gate and MLK Gate are two other notable gates mainly for inbound and outbound traffic in the morning rush/afternoon rush.
Notable Places on Base:
Bowling Alley: 908 Ninth Street (478-926-2112) Fitness CenteBase Gym: 826 Eighth Street (478-926-9128) Fitness Annex/24 Hour Gym: Bldg 301 (478-926-2840) Finance: 236 Milledgeville Street Suite 526 (478-926-4022) Heritage Club/Restaurant: 956 Ninth St (Various Numbers) ITT/Outdoor Recreation: Bldg 984 (Located next to the Main BX) (478-926-4001) Medical Clinic: 655 Seventh St (478-327-7850 Appointment Line) MPF/MPS: 660 Macon St (478-327-5666)
Notable Cities:
Warner Robins - The main city outside of Robins AFB is Warner Robins. WR will be referenced a lot while you are here at Robins. WR can be summed up in a few words as a small-sized southern city with churches and chain restaurants. The city consists of two main counties; Houston (pronounced “House Ton” and not “Hugh’s Town.” People will correct you on this!) and Peach County. Macon - Located about 15 miles north of Robins AFB/Warner Robins. Macon has a lot of history and is nicknamed the “Heart of Georgia” because it is in the center of GA. Honestly IMO, Macon is pretty ghetto… What happened to Macon is similar to Detroit.. Both places were once thriving industrial cities until their main asset collapsed. You’ll see a lot of abandoned buildings when you drive to downtown Macon. It is pretty sad. There are some nice areas in Macon to visit though, like around Zebulon Road. I’d still recommend going downtown to eat at some nice mom and pop stores. Make sure to never go alone, however. Savannah - Located about 2 ½ hours to 3 hours South-East/East of Robins. It is the #1 “Most Haunted” city in the United States apparently. It is really fun to visit. Eat seafood and go on some ghost tours while you’re there. The #3 Ice Cream Shop in the U.S. is in Savannah, Leopolds, if you love ice cream. The vibe can be described as a cross between Florida and South Carolina and “hipster-ish” thanks to SCAD there. Be prepared to walk a lot. Free parking on the weekends! Almost every store gives military discounts since there is an Army Base nearby. Give yourself 3 days and 2 nights to really have a grasp and enjoy Savannah. Atlanta - The capital of GA and the place to be! It is located about 100 miles north of Robins which takes about 2 ½ hours to drive, thanks to the good ol’ Atlanta traffic! There is an abundant amount of things to do and sightsee that I will talk about later in this post.
Food: For fellow Airmen who’ve been stationed here before, you can probably side with my next statement… And that is the food in WR.... can be described as average southern food with average hospitality across the board. There are some hidden/great gems in WMacon, however…
Owen’s Boarding House is one of my favorite mom and pop stores in WR and it's really close to the base for a quick lunch! Owen’s is an all-you-can-eat lunch-only southern restaurant, dig in those chicken wings! It’s about $10.50, cash only. The Rookery, in downtown Macon, is one you’ll hear a lot of. It is an old southern/burger joint. The store has a fancy dining upstairs; The Dovetail, if you’re into that. Martin's BBQ, I referenced it earlier as a good point to locate Robins AFB but it is also a popular BBQ! WR really loves Mexican food, and so do I! Taco Shed is next to the Museum of Aviation, it is American Mexican food. Salsa’s which is a dining American Mexican restaurant. My Grandma’s Empanadas and Luis for more authentic Mexican food. Cuban Cafe sells pretty good Cuban food. Tacos and More, I wasn't a huge fan of it but one of the comments mentioned it and it does sell $1 tacos, try it out! Wasn't a fan of Saigon Noodle in WR, its close to base, which is why I believe their portions are small for a Vietnamese place. Plus, the Pho soup has MSG! Pho Saigon in Macon is great, however. Good portions, and no MSG in their soups! Stir King is a nice American Chinese place which gives good portions. I am not a fan of the “Japanese” food in WR, better go to Atlanta for real sushi and ramen. Also… screw all of WR’s Hibachi restaurants. I did not mention any corporate/franchise restaurants since you may already be familiar with them and only want to mention the mom n pop stores.
Dorm Life: You will be assigned a dorm room with a suite-mate and will have to share a bathroom and kitchen. (Note, not all dorms have a kitchen.) You have to stay in the dorms for at least 3 years TIS and not TOS, which is good.
They’re also “Senior Airmen” dorms for Airmen who’ve stayed longer in the dorms. Essentially, a SrA dorm is a larger dorm with no suite-mate and no kitchen. If the dorms have no availability, Airmen with the longest TOS (Time-on-Station) will be allowed to leave early. You can ask regularly if the dorms are full and maybe you can leave ahead of others. Certain circumstances can allow you to leave the dorms early such as being a mature age (like over the age of 30) or being married but your spouse is currently living elsewhere due to service, school, etc. My personal experience: I lived in the dorms and I would describe the overall experience as “okay.” It can be hit or miss with a good suite-mate and your dorm might have mold in them... I didn’t though. Typically activities of dorm airmen include going clubbing, the gym, and/or playing video games. Overall, I enjoyed living in the dorms because of the access to network with other Airmen, not cooking my own food, because of the DEFAC, and friends were just close by.
Housing: If you’re looking to buy/rent a house, make sure to DYOR and see it’s what you like. The BAH rate for the local area is... fair. If you choose to live by yourself you can make $100-200 extra a month based on where you choose to stay. Very common to find a roommate so you can start pocketing anywhere from $300 to $400.
I lived in Warner Robins after I moved off base from the dorms, and the area was okay. Generally speaking, the further you live off base, (and this goes for all military bases) the safer the environment becomes. If you’re wanting to live in a nicer area and/or have kids. Look into living in cities Kathleen and/or Bonaire. The area and school system (like Houston County High School) is much nicer than the rest of the public school system. Cities like Perry and Bryon have far commutes of at least 20 minutes but can be described as “rural” if like not knowing your neighbors. IMO, please do yourself a favor and do not live off or near Green St. (Hint. It’s right off Green St Gate!) I would also not recommend living in Macon. Imma be real and say Macon is pretty ghetto in most parts of the city (unless you live off Zebulon Rd) and the commute to work is going to be at least 20 mins to work. Edit: Forgot to mention Riverside in Macon. It is still relatively new and the area is nice and so are the neighborhoods. The Riverside Mall is an outdoor mall, very safe and clean. Don't go to the Macon Mall, however. Essentially, South-West of Warner Robins is the best place to live. Where Feagin Mill Rd and Highway 96 is.
Base Housing: Base Housing has really tanked in the last few years, and I mean... the ABW Wing Commander, Command Chief, and multiple First Shirts were involved recently with Base Housing because living conditions have been subpar. Mold has been breaking out in some houses and maintenance work orders take weeks to a few months to resolve. Of course, this is only happening for the Turner Park residency (cough where the Enlisted stay cough) The Officers housing is very nice, however. Now, with that being said, it’s still a 3-month wait to get base housing because of the simplicity and not having to worry about finding a house, short commute to work, safety, etc.
Off Base Housing community is called Huntington Chase, it’s ghetto from what my co-workers have told me as they’ve gunshots go off frequently and cars are breaking into. Off-Base housing is open to civilians and not just military.
Things To Do:
Coca Cola Factory - Entry is free for military (does not include dependents) and it is a nice place to go on a date. Try flavors of coke from around the world! Aquarium - IMO, the experience felt it was geared towards children, I would only pay during special military days because $33 is not worth the visit! Atlanta Zoo - Never been but it is another sight seeing opportunity. Dragon Con - A.K.A. “Comic Con of the East.” Where 80k of your “best friends” come meet in a 4-day comic/pop culture/movie/ convention which spans across 5 hotels! Most people get turned off when they hear “comic” as they associate this con with sweaty nerds… Well, they aren’t wrong! But I can guarantee you’ll be missing out if you did not attend this con at least once while you’re at Robins. Even if you don’t love comics, movies, anime, or pop culture (who doesn’t like at least one of the 4?) you can open drink in public for the duration of the con! It is always during Labor Day weekend every year. And if you don’t mind paying for the price of a host hotel, they’re worth it. Good luck because they get booked fast! Anime Weekend Atlanta - An Anime Con that specializes on having Japanese pop/rock stars to play in the con! MomoCon - An Anime Con that specializes in 24hour gaming/arcade gaming for the entire weekend! Ponce City Market - A hipster food and shopping market that used an abandoned factory as their shopping district. Please do yourself a favor and park in Ponce City Market’s parking and not try to get “free” parking from the plaza across the street. You’ll get a “boot” on your car when you come back and have to pay a fine… Ask me how I figured that out... Caffeine and Octane - A huge car meet in Atlanta that meets regularly. Mardi Gras: The drive to Louisiana is about 6 hours but I know some Airmen who made the trip to be there for Mardi Gras. Florida: The drive will take at least 3 hours to cross the Florida border. Florida is fun, do I need to say more? Professional Sports: Altanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons! Look for special discounts near Veterans days like Hoops for Troops. The Falco Don’t forget to check the ITT office for free or reduce price activities for “single Airmen!” Seriously, I’ve gone skydiving, deep sea fishing, paintballing, etc for free or reduced prices! 50% of Disney Park passes! Obviously, there are more things to do than the list I provided, DYOR and maybe you’ll find a place and/or hidden gem you’ll love!
Nightlife: Go to Downtown Macon for entry level clubs like the Crazy Bull. It’s free for the military to get in. They are always new clubs opening and small clubs closing. Try them all! First Fridays of the month are pretty lit. For the rest of the month, the clubs are kinda empty unless it's a special day like Halloween or St Patricks. Again, don’t go by yourself when you go to downtown Macon. If you and a couple of friends want a better club experience, carpool to Atlanta and go clubbing there. Other than that, there isn’t a strong club scene while being in Middle GA.
Closing Thoughts:
A lot of your co-workers will most likely talk crap about Robins. Well, they’re probably the same salty Airmen who put Robins AFB, 9th, on their dream sheet and how trying to figure out how Eglin or Macdill wasn’t chosen even though it was #1 and #3 on their dream sheet. But even if they aren’t those types of Airmen.... Robins is one of those “what you make of it bases.” You. Yes you, Airman, have to create your own experiences and be willing to leave your dorm and not be a dorm rat to make memories at Robins. This base isn’t centrally located to anything known for “fun” like all the bases in San Antonio, all Florida bases, Travis, Keesler and the casinos, etc. Even that hot A1C still has to make an effort to venture out and explore new roads and can’t rely on other people to do it for them. “Robins-ism.” For whatever reason, “Robin-ism” is basically AFIs and the proper order of how to do things in the Air Force... does not apply the same for Robins. You’ll hear a lot of “that’s not how we did that at my last base.” People say it's because the amount of civilians outnumbers the military 3:1. And with that, if the civilians don’t like the AFI/protocol, it will slowly but surely die out and a “Robin-ism” method of how to do things soon takes over. I am not blaming the large civilian population, it is just what Airmen accept is the reason why some people on this base can be lazy at times. Allergies. If you never experienced allergies or have in the past. Well, Warner Robins has a surprise for you... Seriously, you could potentially suffer from bad allergies. I hope you found this review helpful if you're incoming to Robins whether it'd be a PCS or TDY, or if you just wanted to read my review. Edit: Added more info.
That reminds me of a story. After that last one, I thought you might all enjoy a short follow up. After Al, Chuck, Leo, returned to their other lives back in the world, they kept getting requests from various Agencies and Bureaus for more mine closure data, mostly focusing upon lines of documentation. The various Bureaus desired monographs, road guides, technical reports, and most importantly, detailed step-by-step “How To” manuals. My guys, now my fully credentialed doctored colleagues, were predictably reticent to write up “How To” manuals for something that was obviously not of their authorship nor inception. “Fuckin’-A, Rock,” Leo tells me in a phone call, “They want me to fuckin’ basically claim-jump you writing up mine closing procedures. What’s with these goatfuckers? They figured they paid you enough and are now trying to run a goddamned end around? Collective shitheels. No fucking way I’d even think of crossing, even accidently, the Motherfuckin’ Pro from Dover.” I replied that I had no idea, as after the initial contacts after the field season, I had heard precisely dick from any of the bureaus. Which is fine, as I’m busier than a one-armed paperhanger in a windstorm getting ready to shift the family some 12,700 kilometers east. I thanked Leo for the intel and told him not to worry, it’s just bureaucracy misfiring at its finest. “Fuckin’-A, Bubba,” replies Leo as he hangs up. It suddenly goes all dusty in my office. “I’ve trained that boy well,” I sniff and chuckle heartily. A short while later, Al wrote me that he’s been contacted by the Bureau/Agency and they are desirous that he lead a field trip with a gaggle of professors from various universities. They are also not all geologists, but Environmental Scientists, Hydrologists, something called an “Environmental Engineer,” and other forms of societal detritus. He tells me that they wanted him to lead a group of these characters out into the desert for a couple of weeks and show them the mine closure procedures which he developed. He was most adamant in assuring me that they contacted him, and that the terminology was also theirs. He was already otherwise engaged, so he naturally had to decline. However, he made it abundantly clear that he would never even entertain such a notion like the one they had posited. I wrote him back, as he was down in Patagonia doing something more or less interesting and/or exciting, thanking him for the information and wishing him well on his expedition. Since he was in the field, I also included a couple of the recipes we enjoyed back in the Nevada desert. He later tells me that the Gauchos he was working with down there have never heard of Pineapple Upside Down Cake and they absolutely were delighted by it. Come to find out, they also like potato juice and citrus drinks as well. “Good ol’ Dr. Good-deed. Aide to all men.” I pondered. I talked with Esme about all this and she was of the opinion that either they knew I was headed east or they wanted me to have some time off. I had been doing a lot of ad hoc work for both Agencies and Bureaus over the last few years. “Of course,” I replied, “Never ascribe to malice what can best be defined by governmental bureaucracy and officiousness.” So, time puttered on. We were holding weekly ‘GROJ (Get Rid Of Junk) sales’ on our weekends. Since everything electrical we possessed was 120 VAC, and the rest of the world, it seems, is 220 VAC, I had to part with all my antiquated electronics. My Fisher Studio-Standard stereo system, Akai reel-to-reel 16-track tape machines, EMI TG12345 MK IV recording console, and Harmon-Kardon turntables and amplifiers. It was painful. However, I rationalized, if I were to stick them in storage for a decade or two, I’d have re-paid for them via rental fees a couple or three times over. Plus, and all that sitting unused in a storage locker certainly wouldn’t be good for these vintage electronical gizmos. Still, it was a painful time to pack them into the back of someone else’s vehicle. I had to take all my firearms to my Brother-in-Law for safekeeping. Since he’s in Kentucky, he was both happy to accept and vowed to give them regular workouts. Even though he’s some form or another of mechanical engineer, I guess I could trust him. One day, the home phone rings. It’s Chuck and he’s livid. “Rock!” he hollers, “You know what those chapped bastards at the Bureau want from me? They want me to step in on your turf, and take a clan of idiot pseudo-geologists out in the field for a couple of weeks and train them in mine closing. Can you fucking believe that?” “Chuck,,” I say, “Whoa. Cool down. Leo and Al report the same, so it just looks like you were next on the list. So, going to take them up on their offer?” “Don’t make me laugh, Doc!” Chuck asks, “First: I’m busy. Second: I wouldn’t have the foggiest idea how to handle logistics, camping, explosives, and all that other bureaucratic horseshit you somehow put up with. Third: I really don’t want a midnight visit from you and your bag of tricks because I’ve pissed you off by taking credit for what’s rightfully yours.” “What is the fucking deal?” I ask Chuck, “I’m not like that at all. Everyone thinks I’m going go out and frag them because the Bureau asks them to do a job I did previously. Damn, I’m the most laid-back, gregarious, and even-tempered person on the planet; and I’ll mutilate the miserable manky motherfucker that says I’m not.” Chuck laughs nervously. “Hyperbole aside,” I continue, “It’s just that they know I’m headed out to the Middle East and don’t want to bother me right now; I suppose.” “Umm, Rock,” Chuck clears his thought, and gulps, “That’s not the reason they told me.” “Is that a fact?” I ask, “What did they give as a reason?” “Now, Rock, don’t take this wrong. This is Bureau-speak, not me,” Chuck wants to make the point vodka-clear, “But they felt you were the wrong person to lead this group of ‘scholars’. They were concerned with your…” Hesitation. “Spill it, Chuck,” I say. “Demeanor,” Chuck says, “Your conduct, your deportment, your behavior…” “I see someone got a Thesaurus for Christmas,” I said. “Rock, that’s them, not me,” Chuck continues, “They said you are too ‘wild and wooly’ to conduct this field expedition of ‘noted scholars’.” “Is that a fact?” I ask, rhetorically. “Just reporting to you what they told me, Bossman.” Chuck offers. “I appreciate it, Chuck. Thanks.” I reply, “Don’t sweat it. I’ll take it from here.” You could hear an audible expression of relief when we broke connection. After a couple of cocktails, I had simmered down a bit. Esme says that I need to call my Agency buddies and get the lowdown on the situation, as they’ll know what’s going on. For once, Esme is also very, very pissed off about the whole situation. Mama Bear’s claws were getting sharpened. “You are gone for months,” Es exclaims, “Train a bunch of greenhorns, exceed project requirements by over 200%, supply crucial scientific data on forensic activities, and take out a disaster they didn’t even know existed in that mine with the locker full of explosives!” “Yeah,” I reply, “Does seem a wee bit unappreciative.” “And then they pull this kind of shit!,” Es yells further, “Those ungrateful bastards. Fuck ‘em. Let them stew in their own futility. They call and you tell them to get stuffed. After all you did for them…” “Now, now, Dearest,” say, “Let me call Rack and Ruin. If anyone has the skinny on all this, they’ll have all the latest dope.” “Bastards!,” Es cries, “You damn near get killed several times over and this is their thanks?” “Yeah, I know, Darling,” I say, “Does seems a bit ungrateful and duplicitous.” Esme hands me the phone. “Phone. Call. Now.” She orders. Looks like I just got my marchin’ orders. “Yes, my love,” I reply. Even I know when I’m out-matched. RING RING RING Agent Rack answers and we go through the usual pleasantries… “What the flying fuck you mean ‘I’m too dangerous’?” I question Agent Rack. “Well, Doctor,” Rack tries to explain, “Your ‘cavalier’ attitude towards explosives. More of your ‘relationship’ with them. Not showing the proper deference…” “WHAT?,” I roar, “Ask anyone that has worked with me in the field! ‘Safety first, last, and foremost’. Just that I don’t fret and quail around explosives like a bunch of phonophobic, jumped-up, wet-pantied shuddering schoolgirls, when I have to demolish something, doesn’t mean I’m anything other than a goddamned consummate professional.” “Plus, Doctor, ” Rack continues, “It’s not the 1880’s any longer. A Stetson? A sidearm? A .454 Casull Magnum at that…” “You have got to be yanking my crank here, Rack.” I angrily reply, as I really hate it when someone calls me Doctor like that, “The hat keeps the sun off my head so I don’t get addled like those fuckers you’re talking with at the Bureau. The sidearm is for safety. Oh, yes; there’s that word again. It’s a fucking tool, just like my Estwing hammers or my galvanometer.” “Can’t kill anyone with a galvanometer,” Rack replies. “But I could with a hammer, myriad ways” I reply, “And give me five minutes, I’d figure out a way to ‘extract’ someone with a galvanometer...” “Doctor, do let me let you talk with Agent Ruin; I’m needed elsewhere,,” he tells me. Agent Ruin takes the phone. It’s the old Agency Two-Step. “Doctor is distraught,” he observes. “No, ‘Doctor’ is just plain damned mad.” I reply, “They contract me for a job that has never been attempted before and I complete it beyond their wildest expectations! This is my recompense?” “Well, Doctor,” Ruin continues, “I’m sure it’s strictly a business decision. It’s obviously nothing personal.” “It sure as fuck sounds personal,” I gripe back, as now I’ve gone from annoyed to genuinely pissed off, “I’m surprised they didn’t say something derogatory about my Hawaiian shirts.” “Oh, they did,” Agent Ruin lets slip. “Oh? OK, Fine. That’s is then,” I reply, “The joyfulness of this whole experience has left the building. Tell them to strike me from their fucking list. I’m done with them. I wash my hands of them. I’m off east anyways. Fuck that bunch of paper-pushing, deskbound, pencil-necked dickheads. Fuck them. Fuck them solid. Fuck them ‘till they bleed.” “Strong message to follow,” I add. “Doctor,” Agent Ruin reminds me, “Do I need to remind you that all our conversations are recorded?” “Oh, fuck no. I know that. So fucking what?” I growl, “Like I’m going to get tossed in Guantanamo for expressing a personal opinion? I can still do that in this fine country. Or has the First Amendment been repealed in my absence?” “Doctor, you’re obviously agitated,’ Ruin adds, “Perhaps we’ll talk again later when you’ve calmed down before you head to the Middle East.” “Yeah, about that,” I reply, “You shady characters can cross me off your fucking list as well. You’ve done nothing for me on this latest concern. Nothing! You couldn’t even give me the courtesy of a motherfucking heads-up. Guess that tells me all I need to know about the future of our relationship. Goodbye, Agent Ruin. Give Agent Rack my ‘Da Svidonya. I won’t be answering your calls any longer. “Doctor, I, um, wait…”Agent Ruin sputters. I continue: “And as long as I’m at it, tell that other Bureau to go hang as well. They want more data or shit from me, tell them to go find it elsewhere. And also tell them good luck with that. The three experts that exist in the world apart from me already told them to get bent. At least they possess loyalty and a dollop of comradeship. I’ll be shipping your phone and other items back via parcel post. Hasta la vista, Herr Ruin. Have a day.” CLICK-KER -FUCKING-SMASH! I hang up in the rudest way possible. “Clapped-out assholes,” I muse. “All those years of working together. All those years of building relationships around the world. It’s all kyboshed over a fucking Hawaiian shirt. I guess it was inevitable. Either I became too specialized or evolved myself out of being useful to them. Ah, well, their loss. Can’t be helped…” I take a healthy swig right from the prime vodka bottle. OK, several. “FUCKERS!” I scream at the wood-paneled ceiling, shaking my fist in vehement rage at the clouds coolly cruising by outside my window. Esme doesn’t come running. She doesn’t have to. She knows the score. I ship the Agency’s toys back to them with a terse note: “Thanks for all the nothing. Here’s your shit back. Dr. Rocknocker. PS: Get stuffed.” Not my best effort, I’ll agree. However, I was really pissed at that point. Now I have the time to devote solely to relocating my family and I overseas. Gad, there’s so much crap one must go through. What to sell, what goes in storage, what to trash, what to give away…the lists are endless. First to go are all my power tools. Fuckbuckets. It took me decades to amass that collection. I got a good price, sure, but now I’m more or less without a hobby. We decide to put all Esme’s lapidary equipment in storage. It’s too specialized to generate much interest, much less a decent price. Besides, they won’t rot in our absence. I can ship my fishing gear and golf clubs overseas. They’re American, but at least not 120 VAC. Our house goes on the market and we have to get it spiffed to within an inch of its life. Got to have that ‘curb appeal’. Good, let someone else do it, I’m busy. More unexpected expense. I give our house contractors out in New Mexico their marching orders. It’s going slow and will be a seasonal thing, but they guarantee me the house will be ready by next summer if they can source the slabs of Baraboo Quartzite I want. Splendid, that’s something I don’t have to follow up on every day. Then there’s our aquarium. 250 gallons of treated Houston water, loaded with native Texan fish and a couple of cranky Jack Dempseys. All the gear, filters, pumps, water polishers, heaters, treaters, all of it. Has to go. My ex-Utah Mormon drinking buddy down the road expresses interest. I basically let him have it gratis on the one condition he takes everything, fish included. He has to keep the fish alive and happy their entire lives. I’ve raised some from minnows and have grown attached to a couple of the gaspergou and a certain smallmouth bass with those big brown eyes… Digger, my stalwart mechanic, is going to purchase my truck. It’s a bittersweet parting, but at least I know it’ll have a great home. Digger is going to use it as both his personal truck and his company’s hot-shot vehicle for pick-up and delivery of everything from batteries to full drivetrains. I know the vehicle will be in good hands. Our Land Rover is up for grabs. Few are interested, though; buyer’s market. It’s a couple of years old and has lots of miles, due to Houston being so stupid-big. I order an extra-large bottle of AstroGlide as I know I’m going to be taking it up the ass on this one… Finally, our pets. Reluctantly, I’ve agreed to take the cat. It’s a stupid little feline that I figure we can just toss in a suitcase and drag it with us overseas. No, I guess we’ll get a cat-carrier and figure it out with the airlines. Then there’s Lady. 135 kilos of dopey puppy. She’s getting up in years, as well, especially for a giant breed. Luckily, overseas we’ll be living on a Western compound. So if we go through all the rigmarole of quarantine, getting her a ‘pet passport’, and shipping via a specialist service, Lady can bark at the tenets of pre-Islam (dogs really aren’t haram), and actually join us in our new home. This is going to cost a fortune, but I don’t care. She’s an integral part of the family, she is going to join us. I find a Pet Relocation Service and begin the masses of insane paperwork. It’s an ‘all-in’ service, basically door-to-door. But do not be deluded, they charge every micrometer of the way. Vaccinations, chipping (she already was fitted with an RFID chip), booking, boarding, securing vet services, obtaining health certificates, securing import permits, dealing with all issues related to customs clearance, interacting with foreign agents, supplying IATA approved crates, and obtaining Municipality tags registration for new arrivals. Gonna cost me a couple-three-four kilobucks. Worth every penny. Esme, the kids and I are working on beginning packing, tossing this, wrapping that, sentimentalizing over the other thing when we get a ring at the door. It’s a bonded courier. He has a package for me. It’s of the size that would contain about 6-months’ worth of Playboy magazines, and has no external address. I sign for the thing and walk back to the kitchen. “What you got there, Rock?” Es asks. “Not sure,” I reply, “But it came via bonded courier.” “Well, open it,” Es smiles. She loves surprises. I do so and it’s a series of articles, re-prints, and other information regarding Nevada, mine closures, and the Mine Closure Act. There’s also a number of newspaper and magazine clippings that had been photo-copied into a dozen-page document. All of them, write-ups and reviews from different newspapers, house organs, and journals citing my work with the guys out in the field. I open it further and there’s a personal note from Dr. Sam Muleshoe, and a certified check, made out in my name. Seems I was correct. After exhausting their leads with Al, Leo, and Chuck, they have spent near a month trying to find someone to take over the project. “To fill my shoes,” as Dr. Sam Muleshoe notes. They came up totally empty. “Told ya’ so.” I gloated. Esme smiles a wide schadenfreude-fueled smile. I look at the check. It’s plenty healthy, but not superhero strength. I show Es and she laughs out loud. “So,” Es whoops, “They think they can get back in your good graces by buying you off? Hah! Fat chance,” she says and regards the check, “Hell. They’re not even close.” I agree with Esme passionately. I write a quick, hand-scribbled note to Dr. Muleshoe, thanking him for the information. I give several options, some admittedly anatomically impossible, regarding what he can do with the check and the Bureau’s offer. I wrap it back up with duct-tape, call the courier service, and return it to Reno, COD. A couple of days later, I receive a phone call. Surprise, surprise, it’s from Reno. “Rock, it’s Reno!,” Es tells me. I shake my head “no!” slicing my hand through the air in the head-chop mime. “Tell him I’ve gone bush in darkest Outer Albania and you have no idea when I’ll be back,” I say. Esme looks a bit sheepish, as we can hear the phone remark: “I can hear you, you know.” “Fuckbuckets,” I think, “OK, hand me the rap-rod.” “Yeah?” I growl, very grizzly-like into the infernal communication device. “Hello, Rock. This is Sam Muleshoe,” the phone reports. “Damn,” I exclaim, “I guess you characters can’t take ‘no’ for an answer. Which word fucking confused you?” “Rock, what’s the god damned deal?,” Sam asks innocently, “Why all the bloody hostility?” “Oh, double-fuck me!” I say metaphorically, “Don’t act like you don’t know. Try and snake the latest field mine closing job out from under me and try to snag my guys. Then, when that fails, give some sort of bullshit report to Rack and Ruin. You think I’m ‘too cavalier’, too “wild and wooly’, and think I’m some goddamned 19th-century throwback that loves horrible Hawaiian shirts…” “Doc?,” Sam asks, “Are you currently fucking drunk? What the actual fuck are you rabbeting on about?” “Sam, I’m stone-cold fucking sober,” I reply, “Yeah. I know, that’s a first. But listen here Scooter. You must have balls of brass trying to sweet-talk me into running another field course after all you did…” “Rock,” Sam pleads, “Please, believe me, I have no idea what you’re on about. Can we talk and maybe figure this thing out?” “No!,” I holler, “I’m done talking with the likes of your Bureau. Nothing you can do or say to rebuild the bridges they’ve burned with me.” “OK,” he says, “Doct…, err, Rock, buddy. Calm your tits. Give me the Reader’s Digest version. I’ll look into it, because I have absolutely no idea what this is all about. This really sounds serious, with fuck-up overtones. Trust me, I’m serious as the last cold can of beer on a field trip.” “Marvelous.” I say, “I guess I owe you that much. Professional courtesy. At least one of us has the grit to employ some.” So, I run through the tale of the travails of Al, Chuck, and Leo. Then my little difference of opinion with Agents Rack, Ruin, and the Agency. Plus my severing of ties with both that Agency out on the east coast and the Bureaus in the great American Southwest. “Doctor,” Sam says intently, “I know it’s going to be difficult, but I swear on a box of your finest cigars with a vodka chaser that I didn’t know anything about all this nor did it come from this office. Por favor señor, let me do some digging. I’ll be back in touch.” “Sam,” I say, thinking over the situation, “Yeah…I must apologize for my previous outbursts. I should have known you’re not behind this idiocy. Yeah, go do some fossicking. Let me know what you dig up. Again, sorry. I was a bit…animated.” “Rock,” Sam chuckles, “Do you think that I’d dare anger someone like you? You must think I’ve got a serious case of cranial lithification to cheese-off the Motherfucking Pro from Dover!” At this point, I knew that Sam was also only collateral damage; he too was caught in the crossfire. Ground zero for the original attacks lie elsewhere within the Bureau. Esme and I go back to preparing for our trip coming up in 2 months. But Jesus Q. Christwagons, there’s so much to do. Everything you own; it gets packed, stored, or trashed. It’s the decisions that get so tiring. Keep. Toss. Sell. Burn. Leave on someone’s doorstep. I propose to Es that we just do the basic necessities. Then we hire some firm to finish up for us. It’d be worth the cost since just think what we’d be saving on aspirin and Ace Bandages. Esme readily backs the idea that we should turn the job over to someone else. Plus in the interim, we can take a trip back home to Baja Canada so the kids could visit their grandparents, we visit our family, and all of us could cool out a bit before the big trip east. I need to drop by Big Ray’s Tap for a few hours/days anyways. Old commitments. We’d go the beginning of our last month here in the States, spend a couple of weeks visiting family at home, leave the kids with the grandparents to get spoiled rotten. Es and I would return to Houston to finalize everything. Then Es and I would fly from Houston to that damn sprawling annoyance of an airport on the big lake in Illinoise. The family would meet us there, handover the kids, and we’d all haul ass eastwards to the Middle East. I readily agreed. Anything has to be better than dealing with this crapola. Lady and the stupid cat would go to the pet schleppers a little early. Sure, it’d cost a few more dinars, but that’s one big headache sorted. So, late one afternoon, I’m sitting in my office, trying to figure out exactly what reference works I couldn’t live without. Compton’s? Save. Field Guide to Fungus? Toss. No, wait a minute. Could prove useful. That’s why this is taking forever. The phone rings. It’s Sam. “Hello, Sam,” I say, “What news?” “Goddamn it all to fucking hell and back,” Sam roars. “That’s a unique greeting,” I reply. “I finally drilled down to the bottom of all this horseshit.,” Sam replies, “And it’s a real bowl of fuck all the way south.” “I’m listening,” I say, “Actually, Sam, hold on. I need a drink. Moment.” I give Es the high sign, note it’s Sam on the phone, and that I’ll be in my office if she hears any screaming. I amp up my drink and return to my office, closing the door behind me. Lady is here, waiting to keep my feet warm. “OK Sam, your nickel,” I say, “What’s the scoop?” “Would you believe?,” he begins, “That all batshittery this came from accounting and bookkeeping?” “Well,” I reply, “I’ll have to admit that I’m not overly surprised.” “Yeah,” Sam continues, “I was off on holiday. My first two weeks off after 5 years. My very temporary replacement received a memo from the head of the Bureau that there was great interest in you leading a shortened version of your last trip to demonstrate to a bunch of different university PhDs in the care and feeding of abandoned mines. Seems the Bureau Chief was very impressed with what you and your team accomplished.” “OK,” I reply, “With you so far. So, where did things get wrapped around a tractor’s nuts?” “Right,” he replies, “Here’s where things first went off the rails. Whoever vetted the list of potential attendees sorted the list alphabetically, not by field of expertise. Of course, the obvious first choice would be for geologists; especially those with mining, field, and blasting experience.” “Ah,” I replied, “No wonder it was such a miscellaneous bunch of baloney-loaf whole-grain enviro-types that Al had mentioned.” “Yep,” Sam agreed, “But before anyone with any brains got sight of that list, some fucknuts in the Bureau’s University Liaison department sent out invitations.” “Invitations?” I asked, “To what?” “That’s just the thing,” Sam continued, “They sent out invites to a program that didn’t yet exist, run by someone who had yet to be contacted, much less secured.” “Oh, hey! That’s some good work you guys do down there.” I snort. “Indeed,” Sam agrees, “So once that hit the mail, we started getting back replies and acceptances.” “And there was no project, no leader, no logistics…?” I asked. “No shit,” Sam scoffs. “So, what did these idiots here do? Contact the attendees and explain the problem. Take a little flack, but get it sorted out then try again?” “Let me guess,” I said, “No?” “Nope,” Sam sighs, “By that time, it was in the works and in the hands of accountants.” “Oh, fuck,” I commiserated. “I feel your pain.” “Yeah,” Sam continues, “They see that you’re the hookin’ bull on the last one and they dig into your contract. They figure, ‘Whoa, he’s way too expensive, just look at these expense accounts’, so they do an end-around and contact your colleagues.” “Al, Chuck, and Leo. They’re damn good guys,” I said, “Fine field scientists, all. But I don’t think any of them have the moxie or experience yet to run a whole field course.” “These accounting shitheads never bothered to find out,” Sam groans, “It was all ‘bottom line’, so you got caught in the squeeze.” “OK,” I reply, “I see how that happened, but what about all the shit about me being a 19th-century throwback, that I’m unsafe, wear horrible Hawaiian shirts, and all that shit?” “Comedy of bloody errors,” Sam says, “Actually, the Bureau Chief likes your fashion sense; you should see some of his shirts. But your slime campaign was based on unreliable evidence, tall tales, folklore, and outright fabrications. It was easy to pimp someone with a personality like yours, it’s been said. Someone was trying desperately to cover his ass. However, we have identified the perpetrator.” “Next time I’m in Reno,” I said, “I’ll pay him a friendly little visit and arrange his transport to Neptune. One way. Y’know, it’d be easy for someone with a ‘personality like mine’.” “Ah, yeah. He won’t be here,” Sam says, “In fact, we don’t know where the hell he went. He was immediately sacked, as were a couple of the more boneheaded accountants.” “That’s redundant,” I smirk, “They really don’t want to talk with or see me anytime soon.” “Right, then Rock,” Sam says, “We green again?” “Yeah, Sam,” I reply, “Sure. Green as a New Saigon. But you’ve got to call Rack and Ruin for me. You have to let them know how this whole clusterfuck came to be. We had some words a while back.” “Oh, yeah,” Sam remembers, “I talked with them the other day. They said they’ll be in Houston in a couple of days.” “Cor! Just what I fucking need right now,” I lament. “Ah, it is what it is.” “OK, Rock. Now, back to reality. You interested?” Sam asks. “Send me a JD (job description) and the project particulars. The price of poker’s really going up this time, Sam. Stratospheric. Sorry, it’s all just business.” I relate. “Yeah…,” Sam sighs, “I figure we’ll really owe you if you can drag our ass out of the campfire on this one.” “You have no idea,” I chuckle. We exchange farewells and ring off. Now I have some talking to do with my significant other. Since we were all set to go back to Baja Canada, I could use those two weeks to go to Nevada, if necessary. I can be back in Houston with Es for the last two weeks before we’re slated to travel, and we can sort out the house. “This won’t be an easy sell,” I muse, before chatting with my darling, brilliant, and ever-so-forgiving partner. “I’ll need a drink first”, I declare. Esme notes that it would be nice to have a little spare cash with us when we move overseas. You could have dropped me with a Claymore. Es never fails to flummox me. So, provisional OK from the powers that be. Now all I have to do is wait on Sam’s prospectus. The next day, the doorbell rings. It’s Agents Rack and Ruin. One is holding a box of very expensive cigars, and one is holding a bottle of very expensive bourbon. I turn to Es and remark, “Look here, darlin’. Geeks bearing gifts.” “Hello, Doctor,” Rack says, bristling, “We need to talk. “ “Why?” I ask, “I do seem to recall that I’m no longer associated with you people any longer.” “Doctor,” Agent Ruin cocks his head contritely, bowing ever so slightly, “May we please have a moment of your time?” I look to Es. She shrugs her shoulders. Luckily I’m partial to Es’ opinion. I am also partial to good bourbon and cigars, especially when someone else is paying for them. So I shrug my shoulders as well and tell them to make entry. “My office, “ I say, “You know the way. Mind the boxes.” Once in my office, the Agents stack their offerings and go on in great detail, basically collaborating Sam’s story. I remain steadfast and stony as the Harney Peak Granite of Mr. Rushmore fame. I’m not giving anything away any longer. “Well, Doctor,” Agent Ruin finalizes, “That’s the story, warts and all.” “Yep, it is pretty warty,” I agree, “So?” “We would like to rekindle our relationship,” Agent Rack reports, “These are for starters.” He hands me the cigars and booze; plus another box. “Thanks,” I say, “But just because I accept your peace offerings, that doesn’t mean we’re going to turn back the clock.” “What are you suggesting?” Agent Ruin asks. “No more consulting,” I reply, “I want in. The ‘Full Monty’, as it were. If I’m going overseas and work for some twitchy Middle Eastern sandpit’s national oil company, I want perks, tabs, and my ass duly covered.” “Work two full-time jobs simultaneously?” Agent Rack asks. “However you want to structure it,” I say, “No more consulting. From here on out, you want me, you’re making me a full-fledged full-timer.” Agents Rack and Ruin look at each other, enquiringly. “Doctor,” Agent Rack replies, “We are prepared to offer you an ad hoc Agency appointment. You will be fully attached but you will be also doing your full-time job in the other country.” “I’m listening. Tell me more,” I ask, “What exactly are you offering?” “Full access to all pertinent information,” Agent Ruin continues, “Full entrée to appropriate facilities and, um, assets. Security for you and your family in case of, well, shall; we say, ‘difficulties’. Monthly minimum payment of [$$$] to any non-US bank of your choice. Extra duties would be duly compensated. Top clearances. An enhanced potential payment package, bonus possibilities, and full benefits for you.” “Full benefits for me and my family,” I say, “Or there’s the door. Non-negotiable” I point out. “Very well. That had been anticipated.” Agent Rack replies. “Gentlemen,” I say, “Let us shake on what I hope turns out to be a beautiful relationship.” We shake hands and I sign my life away. I’m really in it now, up to my neck. I have to learn to shut up more and just listen. “Now, gents,” I say, “In order to seal the deal, let us break out the drinking stuff you’ve brought along. We will also smoke together so that we will know there will be no lies or deceit between us.” “Also anticipated, Doctor,” both agents agree. My ‘new’ old colleagues prepare to leave a while later, after a cigar, and far too much of what was a full bottle of expensive gift booze. They always get you in the end. Contained within the other small box were my new Agency credentials, updated version satellite phone, secure codes, and a nifty new Swiss Army Knife, with a built-in cigar cutter. With renewed dedication and expectations all ‘round, Agents Rack and Ruin take their leave. They hope to be able to meet me and the family, remember, they are Uncles Rack and Ruin, overseas one day in the not too distant future. My information, further updated cards, registration, and all that official business guff will come to the specific Middle Eastern country’s US Embassy for me once we arrive and get settled. “Marvelous,” I muse. I receive an Email from Dr. Muleshoe explaining what we talked about and his hopes for my stickhandling a ‘quick’ 2-week field excursion for the approximately 15 Ph.D. types from around North America. Seems there’s a couple of Canadians and one Mexican professor that expressed desires to join. They had actually forwarded funds to be included in our number. Sam suggests I drive out in my truck and proceed as per the last trip. Get the trailer, fill it with noisemakers, and the Bureau would sort out transportation and lodging for the attendees. Seems some want to camp, like real geologists, and some want to lodge in hotels, like real non-geologists. I write Sam back: First item: this is a 2-week sojourn into the desert. It’s a field meeting, emphasis on the field, not a tour of Nevada’s many fine hotels, resorts, and casinos. Item two: I no longer possess my truck. The Bureau will provide me with the appropriate vehicular equivalent. No passengers, this will be the Camp Chief truck from the onset. Besides, I am the only one licensed to drive the vehicle when coupled to an explosives-laden trailer. Item three: I will be flown to and from Reno from Houston. No buses, trains, or automobiles. It’s business class or zilch. Item the fourth: the Bureau will source the necessary support logisticians to provide food, drink, and toilet paper for the 16 professionals while we are in the field. They will also need to provide cooks, dishwashers, camp tidiers, and the like as I don’t have time to deal with 15 potentially field-fresh, whiny waterhead PhDs. Item the fifth: The Bureau will provide for all pre- and post-trip handling of participants. They can handle hotel rooms for the early arrivers or late-stayers. They can manage arrivals, registration, signing of necessary documents, and assuring vaccination records are up to snuff, waivers are signed, etc. They will also handle the transportation of participants to/from and during the field project, when and where necessary. Item the sixth: I include a new version of my contract. Force Majeure, ‘Take or Pay’ clause. Door to door coverage. Plus my, ahem, augmented day rate. Absolutely non-negotiable. Item seven: I have final say over what is done in the field. I am in command, the boss, the head cheese, the head honcho, and I require absolute discipline, especially where explosives are concerned. “My way or the highway” will be the theme of the trip. Gain, non-negotiable. To be continued.
Wealth Formula Episode 224: Multifamily Macroeconomics in the Twilight Zone
Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/224-multifamily-macroeconomics-in-the-twilight-zone/ Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast, he's been on the show before. He's economist Ryan Davis. He actually joined us at one of our last Wealth Formula meetups. Of course, the last one we had was canceled but Ryan was at the one before that. He serves as a chief operating officer at Witten Advisors and provides fact-based research analysis and discussion to help clients like us formulate their apartment strategies and these insights and for investment decisions for multi-family development and buy/sell opportunities which as you can imagine we're all looking for some of this advice these days. Ryan has a PhD in economics from the University of Texas. Ryan, welcome back to Wealth Formula Podcast. Ryan: Thank you. Glad to be back. Buck: Yeah it's been like a pandemic ago when we last talked right? Listen, you know I want to kind of jump into the whole you know what the heck is going on, I mean the overall, if you would, you know kind of give me your overall assessment of the economy. I mean obviously we know these huge drops in GDP etc which were expected last quarter. How is this all affecting real estate asset prices especially you know apartments which is you know is our interest and something that you specialize in? Ryan: Sure so yeah the great unknown is the pace of the recovery. So we had that big drop through April in terms of employment and then we got a bounce back in May and June and the hope was that it was going to be a V-shaped recovery. But then we saw virus cases ramp back up in the second half of June into the early part of July and the local economy started rolling back some of their openings and so with that, we've kind of stalled out recently. So we'll get the July numbers this Friday for overall payroll gains and that could I think the consensus is anywhere between one, one and a half million jobs it could be negative so who knows but it looks like the hope for a v-shaped recovery in the economy has kind of stalled out after the first two months of optimism. And so we think that going forward we won't see any the worst is behind us really and so we won't see you know the big losses that we experienced in March and early into April so kind of what we're calling for right now is for the national economy to continue to add jobs for the remainder of the year and then beginning next year a recovery should emerge and that would sustain demand for housing and ultimately apartments going forward. In the near term as far as multi-family goes we expect some pain through the end of this year and then into the early part of next year. In terms of pricing power, if we had to boil it down to one number it's rent growth so year over year effective rent growth we think that declines to eight percent rent cuts this year and into the early part of 2021. That varies considerably on a local market basis I think our worst-performing market is Metro New York City probably no surprise there but then also many of the other gateway markets such as Boston, LA, the Bay Area, etc. We expect rent declines to be lower than that eight percent across the board, however many of the inner west, Texas, southeastern market should outperform still see rent declines but not closer to five/six percent range at the depth and so we expect near-term pain but then as we get out into 2021 and afterward and the economy begins to add a lot of jobs we would expect rent growth to return to multi-family. And then what that means for pricing in terms of apartment assets for right now in the second quarter hardly any deals trade at hand so it's really tough to get a sense of where pricing is and with the deals that have traded though the cap rates have remained relatively stable which is a good sign. We've heard from some of our merchant builder clients where they had assets they had constructed and were going out to the market to sell in the early part of April they were saying 10 discounts in terms of the compared to pre corona levels but that has since come back in the last 45-60 days and maybe it's only one to two percent in terms of the haircut that they're seeing out there right now. And there's a just a ton of capital that wants to get back into multifamily at the same time there's hardly any distress out there right now so there's a lack of available to you know supply to buy and so everyone is just kind of in this standstill there's a big ass gap because buyers aren't willing to pay yesterday's prices for assets but sellers aren't willing to give any you know deep discounts right now and so it's kind of a standstill and we’ll see how all this plays out. Buck: Yeah you know it's really interesting we're obviously you know through, you work with Western Wealth Capital, one of my partners and you know it's funny because we were kind of thinking well maybe there'll be some real buying opportunities but you know we've seen a little bit maybe just you know from buyers who are sellers who just are just wanting to get out while they're ahead maybe they made some money you know maybe they and at this point you know they're just thinking let's just cash out and maybe they're willing to take a little bit less but for the most part you know if you look across our own portfolio and it might be because it's largely again Texas and Arizona, etc that and maybe it's because it's mostly working-class B and you know high C class apartment but our portfolio you know the numbers are just as good as they've ever been in terms of you know occupancy in terms of even our we're still raising rents. And so when you look at that you're like well I mean how do you expect there to be any you know smoking deals out there if the sellers really aren't feeling any distress. So is there a difference you know when you look at something like a B and C class apartment scenario versus A right now or have you been able to break that down a little bit because I think the people I know who are in the A-class and new build are you know they're certainly feeling things a little bit more than we are. Ryan: Yeah so what we've heard from some of our clients in terms of early on so may June in terms of rent collections class A's were actually from a nationwide perspective actually exceeded the class B and C product. Now we don't think that will continue going forward and the main reason is that new deliveries that are coming online they will compete with the existing top of the market product and so we think that it will be short-lived in terms of the top of the market outperformance and another part is due to just the nature of this downturn where low-wage sectors were hit extremely hard in April, got some bounce back in May and June but the leisure and hospitality sectors lower-paying positions those have been the most impacted so far. But going forward we don't think that this downturn would be any different than prior recessions in terms of the class A leading the way down in terms of jobs and occupancy and also rent growth or rent cuts in the near term. So class A’s will lead the market down but then as we get out into the later part of next year and into early 2022 then class A's would outperform the broader market. So yeah we think through the end of this year until early next that B's and C's will hold up relatively better but that's mainly a function of just the competition that it takes to get these new projects they will get leased up it's just a matter of the market-clearing price and so those have to compete those could be mostly with the top end of the spectrum and so we see big rent declines and concessions in the class A space going forward. Buck: You know there's this thesis that's going around in the multi-family space and you know I've been sort of you know looking at it this way too for a while though I'm starting to you know feel like it's maybe not gonna happen is this idea that there's going to be a potentially before we really rebound and start heading up again that there’ll potentially be a you know big tsunami of defaults and things like that. Right now at least what I'm you know seeing and hearing about in terms of the lending markets and in terms of these properties, there really isn't much indication of that right now is there I mean what do you think? Ryan: No at least not in the short term I mean again there's it goes back to my earlier comment there's been no distress really and so that is due mainly to the huge stimulus packages that have been passed those from a fiscal standpoint and a monetary standpoint which is it's crazy to think that GDP declined at an annualized rate by 32 however incomes soared and so that's all due to the stimulus that we saw and so that's helped prop up renters incomes and allow them to pay rent. Now going forward I think some of these the number of defaults I don't think there will be a tsunami, at least that's how we view it right now, ask me again in a week and it could change, but I think that the defaults will be very market specific and so those geographies that have been hit harder we'll see a larger number but many of the Texas markets, Phoenix, Denver, southeast high growth markets where you've got this short-term tailwind in terms of folks at the margin more and the trends that have been in place for years of folks moving from gateway markets into these inner markets will be kind of you know given a stairway shot really in the near term and so that would help to prop up multi-family fundamentals and so yeah if you're expecting a tsunami of defaults in any of those markets that I've mentioned again it kind of gets a little bit granular in terms of you know potentially Orlando might have some problems just with the amount of supply and then the you know low-wage in tourism industries being impacted more dramatically and that would lead to some weakness in Orlando but out outside of that maybe Houston you could argue you know somewhat but outside of those two and those those areas of the inner west Texas, southeast Florida should be but hold up you know relatively well and I would think that the main stress points will be out you know on the coast in California potentially portland we do think seattle holds up relatively well and then northeast in terms of you know New York and Boston as well so I think it's very locally market driven. Buck: Yeah it's interesting you know we did we were a little worried about Houston too but our you know Houston portfolio is actually doing awesome it's not having any problems at all which is which was you know again, knock on wood that’s what it's been so far. Let me ask you another question you mentioned the pent-up demand of you know money on the sidelines waiting to get back in and you know and in many situations, they have to get back in right they're mandated to deploy capital and that sort of thing do you the one thought that I've had through this is you know multi-family and well multi-family in general has held up so well during this period of time does that potentially create a situation where you know the big money that's coming in starts looking at this even harder as potentially a little bit of a hedge or a little bit of safe haven. What what do you guys think is going to be the effect of that you know the relatively stable performance and then ultimately you know having all of this money on the sidelines,? Do you see paradoxical even further compression of cap rates over the next couple years? What's your thought on that? Ryan: Yeah and so kind of pre-corona our forecast was for cap rates to continue to decline and you know taking a step back it was mainly driven by global factors with the aging populations across the globe that have built wealth up and all that investment needed to be placed somewhere. And so those trends were driving returns lower for longer and so those are the demographic that have not been affected by the pandemic. And so just from a global standpoint, we're expecting returns across all assets whether stocks bonds you know all classes of real estate whether it's multi or industrial retail office, etc those returns would continue to head lower. Now we've had the pandemic and we've seen multi-family and industrial hold up exceedingly well and who knows what to make of retail office and lodging just lots of pain and in those sectors and so if you need to be allocated to real estate then multifamily and industrial or where you want to be at least in the short term and especially if you're looking for consistency of returns and you know risk-adjusted on a risk-adjusted basis you know multi-industrial or have outperformed other asset classes and so really to get into the lodging office retail space probably more opportunistic mindset in terms of those assets may need to be repositioned etc and so I think a lot of that money that's out there is not looking to get there's a lot that's looking for that type of asset turnaround story but there's also a lot of money out there that needs the stability. And so that should continue to compress cap rates or put a really put a cap on that cap rates and so it would be no surprise if cap rates on an aggregate basis hold steady and maybe even decline despite a deterioration in short-term fundamentals and part of that is due to the long-term belief in apartments going forward and so yes there's a short-term dislocation where we expect some move-outs that you know this year actually there are a lot of move-outs that we expect and so there's going to be a lot of doubling up folks moving back in with their families but then there's going to be pent up demand as we as that recovery takes hold next year and that will be released and so we see leasing to be through the roof next year and then out into 2022. Then at the same time as that demand story improves in the short term we see starts decelerating dramatically so we've we're going from a 400,000 unit run rate to about 200,000 units by the early part of next year. And so new production is going to get cut in half now that we don't get any benefit of that immediately so we have to wait till later part of 2022 and 2023 before we see that slowdown and production really lift fundamentals and so I think everyone is seeing that yes there's some short-term disruption in the multi-family market right now, but the long-term drivers are there and if you have the capital to wait out this very painful period in the short term then there will be major benefits after that we should see after next year. Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now? Ryan: I think the worst is behind us in terms of the economy. I think that going forward we should continue to produce job gains on a monthly basis, though this next report could see some layoffs we'll see the consensus is one million one and a half. In terms of multi-family we do not think the worst is behind us we think that fundamentals will continue to deteriorate into the early part of next year we think that you know kind of right now in terms of year over year rent growth in the early part of this year let's call it three, three and a half percent we've since gone down to zero percent in the second quarter. So on a quarterly basis we've seen some dramatic rent cuts, again this is on a national basis and then as we move forward we see occupancy dropping by about three percentage points into the early part of next year, rent declines of about eight percent through the remainder of this year into the first quarter of next year and so no we do think that there will be some deterioration and fundamentals going forward. On the flip side of that might present some opportunities and so any assets that were purchased specially in your space in terms of if they were bought at the top of the market at the end of last year in the early part of this year and now that value-add story isn't there where you might not be able to get the rent bumps that you were expecting so some of those assets will have to be recapitalized and so that might present some opportunity as the year progresses but again like you said we haven't seen that materialized so far. Buck: Yeah that's the tricky part right I mean it's sort of like I think when you're on the buy side here you're saying well I mean these prices that we're seeing right now you know with prolonged you know low-interest rates which we can pretty much guarantee at this point for a period of time and then the pent-up demand. It's sort of like okay well I mean this actually might be one of the better times to buy if you consider what could potentially happen in the next you know 18 to 24 months in terms of you know explosive growth. When you look at those indicators that you're you know that you're talking about that may lead to some of the more explosive growth metrics what markets come to mind the most for you? Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now? Ryan: Yeah so our general geographic areas that we like we like the southeast, parts of Florida, Texas and the inner west. We really like Atlanta, we like South Florida though there's a little more pain in the short term some of our clients are saying it kind of in terms of you know rent collections you know northeast but also yeah LA but then South Florida is outperforming those two areas but still lagging some of these other markets. So we like the Texas markets long term the interwebs you have Phoenix, Denver, Salt Lake as well. We like Seattle that's an outlier on the west coast but then the other markets whereas in the Bay Area we expect those you know rent growth numbers to average four, four and a half percent which stack up really well across the nation but for those markets that's a recession pretty much and so compared to what's normal and the cap rates you have to pay the rent growth numbers there kind of you know lackluster. So the midwest the markets they won't be hit as hard but still they don't get that explosive growth going forward and so we really like the inner West Texas, southeast of Florida markets and you know part of that has been driven being driven by the migration flows. So domestic migration numbers have really helped out all of these markets we've seen outflows from the northeast boston new york the bay area Southern California we've seen migration outflows from those markets into the you know inner west you know Las Vegas the inland Phoenix, Denver you know people moving from the coast into those markets and then you know also parts of texas as well but then in terms of the northeast the flows that are coming in to the Nashvilles the Charlottes, Raleighs, Atlanta, Florida markets we and then also Texas as well and so those trends have been accelerated at least in the short term, but it's important to remember that those have been going on for a decade at least even more and then other markets and so it's not anything new but at the margin that will support many of these other markets. Buck: Yeah on the west coast I mean there's that flight to Arizona as well right from California. One of the things that you know is worth talking about is what effect this has had you know the pandemic and the recession on the lending market, with Fannie and Freddie and you know how that might be playing into any of the growth or lack of growth. Ryan: Yeah I think on the financing side you know debt for stabilized assets it's there and it's cheap you may have to you know have higher reserves than you've had typically but for the most part it's there and so that's part of the appeal of buying assets right now with these record low interest rates. So I think for stabilized assets yeah it's there for new construction it is dried up considerably and this is a change in the last 30 to 60 days and so the fed does a survey each quarter of banks and their tightening of multi-family construction lending standards and that the latest report shows 70 percent of banks tighten their multi-family construction loans last quarter which we haven't seen those levels since 2008/2009. And so I think part of it's the lenders are trying to make sense of what they have in terms of all these other asset types in terms of real estate or retail, lodging, office loans, they're trying to you know spend a lot of time working those out and so then you add on the uncertainty in terms of the economic recovery etc, they've pretty much put a halt on new construction loans. And so that's been a big change here in the last two months call it. Then on the equity side I think returns have been increased but still available and interested but you know a lot of you know equity and especially focusing in on the new starts pipeline if all the deals that have been started are continuing and it's kind of a mixed bag from our clients in terms of are you seeing delays or actually some other clients that reported these they were able to speed up the timing in terms of getting able to get trucks into sites very easily and then also the construction workers that were on you know working on hotels motels those have come into the apartment sector and so that's provided more manpower in terms of getting these deals done. And so those that were under construction are continuing to proceed, those that were capitalized I think that but haven't begun those have been they haven't pulled out completely they just said let's press pause to see let's say can we get any break in construction costs over the next several months and so the equity and banks they're still willing to do it move forward on those deals that have been capitalized but are you know slow playing it. And then you get to the others where there's land sites and they hadn't been entitled and haven't been capitalized those deals we think have been shelved for right now and so it kind of where some opportunity could be is on the land side of you know potentially purchasing some land sites that might be teed up for development as we get further along in this recovery. Buck: Again one of the things that you're saying though in terms of construction loans not being there again it helps us for those of us who have apartment portfolios already that are already there that that again goes to the issue of a simple supply and demand issue which we can benefit from if there's not a whole lot of new builds. You know this is a major driving variable in in apartment buildings nationally can you give us a little bit of the idea of you know just not being able to keep up with you know population growth in various parts of the country, can you give us a little bit of you know sort of a thousand-foot view on the perspective on how big of an issue that actually is? Ryan: I don't know if it's that big of an issue you know on on the whole and I think that you know some of these higher growth markets in terms of where we've you know call it the Atlantas and North Carolina markets, Central North Florida, Texas, the inner west regions where we've seen large population growth statistics you know high growth markets but they're also they also tend to be the highest in terms of supply for housing and so it's more easy to build in those markets especially you know out as you get away from the know central cities etc and so where we've seen the the biggest barriers to supply are out on the coast and so we've seen you know job growth be pretty good in those markets but the supply hasn't kept up at all and so that's why you're seeing you know these big you know rent affordability you know problems in the coastal markets and so we think that supply not keeping up with the population dynamics is more of a coastal problem but then you know as you get into the markets that are more accepting of new development then you know we've seen housing supply increase at a rapid clip in many of these other markets I think you know Austin you know even through the June of this year permit activity for multi-family continued to set it reached big big levels and so I think year to date in Austin it's already pulled permits on almost 10,000 units already which is you know huge numbers. And so I do think that while these population growth numbers and some of these markets are you know off the charts especially compared to you know some of the coastal markets, that supply has been able to keep up there and so yeah you see pockets of where you know rent growth you know bumps up to you know five, six percent levels, it's especially that was the case in Phoenix and Las Vegas over the past two to three years where those markets were leading in terms of rent increases but they tend to you know be markets that you know will accept more new supply and so that will tend to even out over the long term. Buck: How's Vegas doing out of curiosity because that one was just crushing it. It seemed it seemed a little dangerous you know it seemed like one of those markets where it's like wow is it real or is it one of those things that's just gonna go back to Vegas. Ryan: Yeah exactly and yeah kind of thinking that you know before kind of goes back to your comment earlier about people moving from the coast to getting in their car and driving to the riverside and then Las Vegas and Phoenix and so it was benefiting from a real out-migration from expensive coastal California. That said that just the nature of this pandemic crushing leisure and hospitality and the conference circuit that the job losses in Las Vegas I think you know through April into May led the nation. We've seen some a bit of a bounce back there but really the question is you know how fast does the the conference you know a circuit come back, how fast are people willing to travel to casinos, I know they have already, but I think that pre-corona the growth was real and yeah absolutely now it's a little bit different you know market in terms of the cost and you don't want to go in there and if you're a developer you don't you know want to build a high-rise there and so your strategy is a little bit different but so far it's held up relatively well, all things considered, but still a lot of weakness that is materializing in Vegas. Buck: Interesting stuff. Well listen I don't want to keep you all day long, Ryan, but it's been great talking to you. Where can we learn more about your work? Ryan: Sure. Probably the easiest is wittenadvisors.com you can go there, all our contact information is there, feel free to reach out with a phone call or send me an email anytime and I'll be happy to give you more details on the services that we provide and how we add value to many clients that are in either owner, operators, developers, equity or lender clients. Buck: Fantastic thanks again and we'd love to have you again you know in a few months to reassess where we are at. Ryan: All right. Sounds good. Looking forward to it. Buck: We'll be right back
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