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Introduction It is no secret that Mika Zibanejad is struggling this season. After potting 41 goals and tallying 75 points in 57 games last season, good enough for a 59 goal, 108 point pace, many thought Zibanejad has finally reached the upper echelon of hockey and is fulfilling the potential that beloved former Ottawa Senators general manager, Bryan Murray, once saw. However, it’s a different story this season. The New York Rangers star centre has 3 points in 12 games and his performance has left a lot to be desired this season. His 3 points rank him seventh among all Rangers players and tie him with Filip Chytil and Colin Backwell. To put Zibanejad’s performance in perspective, Chytil and Backwell have the same amount of points as Zibanejad but have only played 5 and 4 games, respectively. This brings us to our question for today, what is going on with Mika Zibanejad?
Without taking a look at any advanced statistics from Zibanejad this season, one can easily chalk up Zibanejad’s poor performance to contracting COVID-19 and shooting high last season. Zibanejad missed the start of training camp due to COVID-19 and
his full first practice was 3 days prior to the Rangers’ opening game. Manchester United star, Paul Pogba, has mentioned that COVID-19 has
exhausted him and it took him weeks just to get back into shape. Utah Jazz's Rudy Gobert, the first NBA player to contract COVID-19, has also mentioned that the virus has negatively affected his physical condition. Zibanejad shot 19.7% and had an Individual Point Percentage (IPP) of 80.65% in all situations last season. Both were career highs which makes his fall from grace much less surprising. But when we delve a bit deeper into Zibanejad's underlying numbers, Zibanejad is not just regressing to the mean. The Swedish star is currently experiencing insane bad puck luck.
Zibanejad's Performance at All Situations Zibanejad is currently shooting 2.56% in all situations this season. Prior to this season, Zibanejad has a career shooting percentage of 12.9%. The center has shot above 10% in seven straight seasons resulting in this season's shooting percentage of 2.56% being a huge outlier. As mentioned earlier, Zibanejad only has 3 points this season with one coming at 5v5, one on the power-play, and one during an empty net. Zibanejad has an IPP of 33.33% which indicates that he is only involved in 33.33% of teammates' goals. Last season, Zibanejad had an IPP of 80.65% while his career average puts him at 66.36%. As a result, Zibanejad only has one goal to show for this season, however, his Individual Expected Goals (ixG) is 3.95, which means that Zibanejad should have at least 3 goals. Zibanejad also has a PDO of 959 which further showcases how unlucky he is this season.
But Zibanejad's performance doesn't just come down to bad puck luck this season. Some Blueshirt fans may say that Zibanejad should shoot more but there's only so much he can do when he's putting up 3 shots a night. Nevertheless, there is some truth in those words. Last season, Zibanejad was shooting 3.65 shots per game and 10.12 shots per 60 minutes. This season, those numbers are down to 3.18 and 9.55, respectfully.
Zibanejad is also skating less this season to boot. Last season, Zibanejad was skating 21:37 a night, while this season, that average drops to 20:25, which is one whole minute less. He's also losing more faceoffs this season. Zibanejad has a faceoff win percentage of 44.49%, which is the 2nd lowest in his 10-year. Prior to this season, Zibanejad achieved a faceoff win percentage greater than 49% for 5 straight seasons. He also has a faceoffs won/60 rate of 25.71 which is a 6 year low. As you know, winning faceoffs leads to puck possessions which result in greater scoring opportunities. Just ask Patrice Bergeron and the Boston Bruins.
Zibanejad's 5v5 Production Now you might think, 2.56% is already low enough already and there's absolutely no way that Zibanejad can shoot any lower, right? Think again. At 5v5 this season, Zibanejad is shooting 0%. Yes, you read that right. 0%. His shot pace is also down this season too. Last season, Zibanejad was averaging 2.16 shots per game and 9.27 shots/60. This season, Zibanejad is averaging 1.42 shots per game and 6.63 shots/60. Prior to this season, Zibanejad shot an average of 1.63 per game which further indicates that he's shooting less this season. Zibanejad's low shooting percentage and shot pace has translated to zero 5v5 goals this season.
Zibanejad is not the only one having trouble scoring. The centre has an on-ice shooting percentage of 3.33%. On-ice shooting percentage measures the team's shooting percentage when a certain player is on the ice. Zibanejad's on-ice shooting percentage indicates that his teammates are shooting 3.33% when he is on the ice. He also has an IPP of 50% and a PDO of 950. In the previous section, we touched on Zibanejad's ice time. His one minute drop in ice time comes from his 5v5 ice time. This season, Zibanejad is skating 20:25 a night which is lower than last season's average of 21:37. But one minute does not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Zibanejad and his linemates are currently experiencing some bad luck and as a result, Zibanejad only has one point, a single primary assist, to show for this season.
Last season, the line of Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich had a Corsi For Percentage (CF%) of 52.82%. Zibanejad's line had a positive CF% which indicates that they were positive possession line last season. For this season, it's a different story as the Zibanejad line has a CF% of 47.06, which indicates that they are a negative possession line. Moreover, Kreider and Buchnevich have struggled this season when not playing with Zibanejad as they have a CF% of 37.50%. This demonstrates how important Zibanejad is to the Rangers' top line. We can attribute the Zibanejad line's fall in CF% to being tasked with harder matchups this season. Last season, the Zibanejad line saw 45.78% of their faceoffs in the offensive zone. That percentage is down to 41.67% this season which indicates that David Quinn is giving his first line more defensive matchups this season which is another reason why Zibanejad's faceoff win rate is at a 6 year low. Moreover, the Zibanejad line shot 11.84% last season while that mark has dropped to 6.67% this season.
Zibanejad's Power-Play Production Zibanejad led the Rangers in power-play (PP) points (27) and goals (15) last season. Over one-third of Zibanejad's points,36% to be exact, came on the PP, but it was not hard to see why. Zibanejad shot 25% on the PP last season, which some of you may say is high, but the centre shot 21.21% on the PP during the 2017-18 season. Shooting over 20% is a figure Zibanejad can reach again. Moreover, the New York Rangers' PP converted on 22.90% of their opportunities, good enough for 7th in the league. Zibanejad was a key staple on the Rangers' first PP unit and saw 3:43 of PP time a game which translated to 70.1% of his team's total PP time.
This season, Zibanejad is only seeing 68.1% of his team's PP time. But a 2% drop in PP time is not a bad thing as Zibanejad is skating a career-high, 4:17, on the PP this season. In addition, Zibanejad is shooting more on the PP this season which is encouraging given his struggles this season. He is shooting 23.3 shots/60, which is a career-high. Last season, Zibanejad was shooting 17.26 shots/60. His extra 34 seconds on PP and increased shot pace have only led to one point, a goal, though.
So what's going on this season? Well for one, Zibanejad is currently shooting 5% on the PP. Second, Zibanejad has an IPP of 16.67%. 16.67% is a far cry from Zibanejad's IPP last season when he was involved in 84.38% of the goals on the PP. Moreover, the PP that was ranked 7th last season is now in the bottom 10 of the league. The Rangers are converting on 13% of their PP opportunities, which ranks them 24th in the league. They have also made a huge change with their first PP unit this season with Adam Fox taking over PP quarterback duties from Tony DeAngelo. DeAngelo was involved in 29.6% (8/27) of Zibanejad's PP points last season and received 47.3% of the team's total PP time on ice (I broke down DeAngelo's performance last season before he was waived, which you can read
here). DeAngelo was a huge part of the Rangers' offense last season and losing him has dampened the team's offense.
Conclusion Many saw Zibanejad's regression coming, but they never would have guessed that Zibanejad would underperform relative to his career average. COVID-19 has most likely played a part in Zibanejad's performance this season as it has been documented that the virus has negatively affected the health of athletes. Moreover, lady luck has not been kind to Zibanejad this season as he is shooting extremely low in all situations and has an obscenely low IPP at 5v5 and on the PP. His teammates are also having difficulties finding the net at 5v5. Lastly, Zibanejad is receiving more difficult matchups this season which reduces his opportunities to produce. With this season being a huge anomaly, the Rangers are already one-fifth through their season and need their star player to step up now more than ever. It's just only a matter of time that Zibanejad will turn it around.
Source https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/ If you guys have enjoyed this small analysis, feel free to check out some other ones here. I've done similar analyses on Mark Giordano, Kyle Connor, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Tony DeAngelo. Thank you all for reading! :>
Edit: Added in source for data
submitted by I tried to make it easy to skip around if you just want to see the financials or estimates. Just scroll to them if you don't care what the company is or their sectocompetition/management. TL;DR at bottom with final thoughts.
Introduction “
FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies.
Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018."
From their
home page:
They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons).
They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN).
Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (
Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (
Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (
Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (
Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (
Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month.
Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a
10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands.
Assets-
Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention.
Liabilities-
Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905.
Revenues-
Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a 77-84% increase YOY.
Expenses-
Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year.
Subscribers-
Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY.
Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)).
Hulu + Live TV
- Includes league networks
- 50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
- More than 74 channels
- Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
- 2 streams at a time
- $64.99/month
- Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
- Includes league networks
- Unlimited DVR storage
- More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
- 3 streams at a time
- Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
- NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
- Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
- Includes league networks
- DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
- More than 45 channels
- 3 streams at a time
- Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
- Starting $35/month
- Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
- Includes league networks
- DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
- More than 30 channels
- 1 stream at a time
- Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
- Starting at $35/month
- Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
The vMVPD Sector Cord-cutting has become increasingly popular over the last few years with consumers dropping traditional cable and satellite networks in favor of streaming services--such as Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, etc.--and vMVPD services.
In 2019 alone, 6.3 million people cut their cable connection, totaling 39.3 million. In a survey of what they might miss most from cable networks, 52% said they don’t miss anything, 23% missed live events on TV, 22% missed news, and 19% missed live sports. Although not all of those that miss aspects of cable will pay for another subscription service, the sentiment exists for a sports-focused platform that offers other large networks as well.
Another report by Parks Associates reveals that 17% of vMVPD subscribers switched from traditional TV within the last twelve months. In the same report, a survey conducted on current broadband households determined that 43% were “likely to switch to a… vMVPD within the next 12 months." The potential growth exists for the live digital broadcasting space, although it is slowing down.
With the spread of COVID and quarantines, people have been spending more time at home. When things open and quarantines end, that will be the true test for these providers as people will spend less time watching TV.
The Sports Betting Sector Legal sports betting has taken a huge leap in recent years with the introduction of online sports betting; the ability to place wagers from anywhere at any time and have instant gratification has boomed with its slow legalization.
This sector has a forecasted value of $150 billion with other competitors already having a completed project and vast market share. In 2019, DraftKings ($DKNG) and FanDuel (PDYPY) controlled 83% of the market share.
FuboTV plans to join into this space with its own sportsbook. Their recent acquisition of Balto Sports in December of 2020, whose business was in simulating fantasy sports games, is Fubo’s first step into sports wagering. They plan to create a free-to-play gaming system alongside online sports wagering. Their next planned acquisition, which was announced in January of 2021, will be to acquire Vigtory, a sports betting and interactive gaming company. According to BusinessWire, they plan to utilize Vigtory’s “sportsbook platform and digital gaming assets, and its consumer-driven betting technology, to develop a frictionless betting experience for fubo’s customers."
These recent acquisitions set Fubo up to create an all-in-one viewing and betting experience, which could add new customers to their subscriber list and seal them into online wagering.
It has been over two years since the Supreme Court has denied the federal ban on sports betting, which would have made online betting illegal in all of the United States. Currently, more than two dozen states have legalized sports betting, but most have only legalized in-person betting. More states may be willing to legalize to take advantage of the increased revenues and taxes associated with gambling and online wagering. As of 2020, six additional states plan to legalize some form of betting, although some are only allowing in-person. There are an additional 14 states that are considering the notion to allow legal gambling, whether in-person, online, or tribal.
Management and Investors David Gandler - CEO / Director / Co-Founder
Appointed as CEO and director in April of 2020. Prior to Fubo, Gandler had a 15 year career in marketing and advertising in local broadcast and cable TV within both general and Hispanic markets at companies such as Time Warner, Telemundo, and Scripps Networks Interactive.
Alberto Horihuela - CMO / Co-founder
In charge of marketing, Horihuela was head of Latin America for SVOD service DramaFever.
Simone Nardi - CFO
Nardi has worked as SVP and CFO of Scripps Networks Interactive where he was responsible for the finance and strategic planning for the company’s international business. Was also a key player in refinancing TVN S.A.’s billion dollar debt.
Large Investors
- Islet Management, LP with 5,108124 shares
- Morgan Stanley with 3,317,333 shares
- FMR LLC with 1,262,907 shares
- BlackRock Inc. with 956,678 shares
- Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021.
Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%.
Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance.
Risks - Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
- Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
- Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
- Consumers opt for cheaper options
- People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition.
At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue.
My Position 25 shares at $47.30
Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR
Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
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